No change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections, but interestingly, median FOMC participant sees long-run growth now at 2% (up from 1.8% in December) and R* at 1.1% (up from 1%).

True love for the game.

Energized by last night's big Spurs win. This is a group of young men playing for each other and having a wonderful time doing it. #PorVida

Sector weighting is casting a long shadow over YTD results for equity strategies this year:

Between the strategic reserve releases and the unsanctioned oil, the oil market was able to buy about a month of time before the real high prices, shortages, and demand destruction begin...

Feeder cattle appear determined to Octobers's gap. Closing above $364 leaves room for another $4 run. Closing Octobers's gap on good volume sets the stage for new May contract highs. Target $383-$390. @barchartag @barchart #cmdtyView

May feeder cattle ended the week on strong volume, increased open interest, and the contract's fourth highest close. Closing in the middle of the October gap, the next resistance is the gap's top at $373.22, then the all-time high of $376.70. @barchartag @barchart #cmdtyview

President Trump's other inflation headache: beef. While everyone is rightly focused on gasoline and oil amid US-Iran war, the meat market isn't giving a respite. Live cattle wholesale prices in Chicago have reached a new all-time high, surpassing last October's peak.

May feeders finally closed the October gap, and closed decidedly above it. Closing above the $375.15 contract high likely gives May upward momentum to at least $380, probably $383, and possibly $390. Barchart Agriculture Barchart #cmdtyView

May feeders finally printed a new high this morning. Closing above $374.77 should confirm further new highs, with the first target range at $380-$384. A double top here would be a real bummer. Barchart Barchart Agriculture #cmdtyview

It turns out people vote based on policy. A sneak peek at our paper for MPSA next week, in a not-to-be-missed panel: convention2.allacademic.com/one/mpsa/mpsa2…

I built a model of consumer sentiment that’s backed by new research showing consumers react more negatively to economic shocks in good times vs bad. It tells us the same thing polls do: People are really upset about the high price of food, housing, etc. gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-17-c…

Today's Cattle on Feed report had the new heifers on feed number: 37.3%. That's down from 38.7% in January, representing a shedding of 115k in heifer inventory.

New version of my R package {democracyData} available: github.com/xmarquez/democ…

Thermostatic shifts against the direction of policy & the president happen across parties. That means internal shifts within the party out of power. Dems are moving left now, as they were in 2018. There's also slower steady change but hard to separate out the cyclical & long-term

Washington, DC, metropolitan area lost 103,900 jobs from January 2025 to January 2026 bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/… #BLSdata

Good post from Krugman on the economic vibes again, esp the last chart: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/bad-vibes-an… In my piece last week I shared a new paper from Chris Wlezien and Derek Epp at UT Austin showing he's exactly right, that people respond to inflation worse during good times vs bad:

I said it on Wednesday, I’ll say it again. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan are leading indicators of where the committee is going Im sure some FOMC members did not want to make a big substantive pivot right before a new Fed Chair came in. They will be less reluctant going forward