A short(ish) 🧵 on reports that Netanyahu and his government are in emergency talks over credible 'information' they have received that the #ICC plans to issue warrants against senior figures in the Israeli government, including Netanyahu.

First of all, on the veracity of the information:

It's possible that it's wrong. The ICC Office of the Prosecutor is unlikely to share news of warrants unless it was imminent (1-2 days before).

But I very much doubt meetings would be held if the information was complete bunk.

The #ICC is not immune to intelligence operations and espionage - and Israel is good at those things. So too are its allies. They'll be aware of developments before they happen.

I wrote about spies at the ICC a few years back: justiceinconflict.org/2016/02/05/spi…

Why the urgency now?

Israel has likely been distracted by the ICJ cases + the quiet operations of the ICC Prosecutor in recent weeks. If so, that is a smart play by Prosecutor Khan.

Any warrants issued need to be based on exceedingly strong evidence - trial ready, really.

What will happen next?

Attacks on the Court!

Netanyahu's plan has ALWAYS been to belligerently attack the ICC and to get other states to attack the ICC to undermine any investigation. Same playbook as always, even if it makes him look guilty: justiceinconflict.org/2015/01/20/in-…

Reports say 🇮🇱 is actively lobbying Western states, incl ICC members 🇩🇪 +🇬🇧 .

Surely Netanyahu is relying on them acting against the Court. Not convinced they will, which is amazing.

With its support for the ICC in 🇺🇦, we'll have to wait to see likely double-speak from 🇺🇸

Netanyahu's long-standing attacks on the ICC won't work & may not be intended to, at least not as a matter of law.

They're likely intended to shore up the support of those who blindly oppose any independent investigation of any Israeli atrocities ever & deny 🇵🇸 human rights.

But I highly doubt that the ICC Prosecutor will care much if states do try to interfere.

The evidence against Hamas + 🇮🇱 officials is overwhelming + exceptionally well catalogued. As the Prosecutor said: if warnings aren't heeded, offenders shouldn't be surprised w ICC action.