March Consumer Confidence came in at 91.8 versus an estimate of 87.8. February JOLTS reported job openings at 6.88M, slightly below 6.89M expected and down from January’s 7.24M, revised from 6.94M.

Feb. Retail Sales rise 0.6% m/m; est. 0.5%, x-autos rise 0.5% m/m; est. 0.3%. March ADP Private Employment rises 62K; est. 41K.

Mortgage bond prices are slightly higher, 10-yr yield 4.31%. Stocks are up. WTI oil $99.78/bbl, -$1.65.

Oil prices surge after President Trump pledged more aggressive action against Iran and offered no clear plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Dow futures -700 points. Mortgage bond prices lower, 10-year yield edges up to 4.34%. WTI oil is at $109.71/bbl, up $9.57.

Mortgage bonds begin the week near unchanged, the 10-year yield edging higher to 4.36%. Stock futures are slightly lower. WTI oil is at $110.33/bbl, down $1.19.

Economic data this week, ISM Services this morning at 10:00, Durable Orders Tuesday, Core PCE and GDP Thursday, and CPI on Friday. The Treasury will auction $58B in 3-year notes Tuesday, $39B in 10-year notes Wednesday, and $22B in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

The March Fed minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday.

US-Iran ceasefire hopes are easing geopolitical risk, helping stocks rebound, pushing oil lower, and bringing Treasury yields down.

The deal also opens the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about global oil supply disruptions and helping calm energy markets.

Dow futures +1,281, WTI oil $92.65/bbl, down $20.31, 10-year yield 4.23%, mortgage bonds surge.

Stock futures are slightly lower this morning after huge gains yesterday. Treasury yields and mortgage bonds are flat, 10-year 4.29%. WTI oil is up $5.21 to $99.68/bbl.

Feb. Core PCE rises 0.4% m/m; est. 0.4%, y/y 3.0% inline.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 219K vs 211K expected. Final Q4 2025 GDP 0.5%.

As expected, stocks open with modest losses ... Dow down 200 points.

Ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET release of March CPI, markets are flat across the board, with the 10-year yield at 4.29%, WTI oil $98.15/bbl.

March CPI rose 0.9% m/m vs 1% expected y/y 3.3% vs 3.4%. Core CPI m/m 0.2% vs 0.3% and the y/y number rose 2.6% vs 2.7%.

BLS/CPI: The index for energy rose 10.9% in March, led by a 21.2% increase in the index for gasoline which accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly all items increase.

U.S.-Iran talks break down, President Trump orders a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI jumps 8% (+$7.62) to $104.27/bbl. Stock futures lower. 10-year yield rises to 4.35%. Mortgage bonds open weaker.

Mortgage bond prices, Treasury yields, and stock futures are near unchanged, with the 10-year at 4.29%. WTI crude oil is down $1.63 at $97.45/bbl. March PPI (wholesale inflation indicator) is due at 8:30.

Mortgage bonds opened slightly lower, with yields higher following yesterday’s positive session. The 10-year is at 4.27%. Stock futures are near unchanged. WTI oil is at $92.26/bbl, up $0.97.