$TSLA - Today SpaceX is likely cash flow positive. Post the xAI merger it is likely not. Combining with Tesla does not help as it is cash flow negative too. A $3trn combined EV implies > $500bn required annual FCF in 10 years time or 5x current revenue.

SpaceX: Starlink growth has peaked. Growth in 2025 driven by aggressive $0 Terminal Kit and free second terminal. Despite Residential Lite at EUR29 did not reach 10mn by 6-Feb (required to not decelerate). Double counting customers if multiple terminals? ARPU collapse incoming?

Assuming a few days of Christmas holidays this implies 200K Starlink churners over 53 days or ~15% annualized churn (in-line with terrestrial peers) which is the first time we have had insight into this regarding SpaceX. Thank you Jon Edwards

$TSLA - We are in the last inning. You can feel the fanboys and girls are getting tired. Estimates keeps getting cut. 8% EPS cut to FY2026 and FY2027 since the post below a month ago and still a lot more to go!

$NVDA $GOOGL $AMZN $META $MSFT - This is why Cassandra Unchained and others is barking up the wrong depreciation tree regarding the hyperscalers. GPUs are just not that big a part of capex and the rest is longer lived:

$NVDA – Results call summary. OpenAI kiss and make up (don’t kill the golden goose). Everyone is tired. The prepared remarks, the questions, the answers, even Jensen. Hyping extreme co-design, token/watt & token/$. They know the EPS upgrade cycle is ending.

$ASTS - One delay after the other....

It wasn’t that long ago that Elon Musk was calling the large-scale release of carbon dioxide into the Earth’s atmosphere the “dumbest experiment in history” and pleading with world leaders at the UN climate change conference in Paris to implement a carbon tax to curb emissions.