Hot Jobs Report Burns Dovish Fed Views, by John Lonski open.substack.com/pub/thruthecyc… #jobsreport #FOMC #FederalReserve #interestrates #fedfunds #mortgagerates #economy #wageinflation #unemployment #inflation #autosales #stocks #junkbonds

Odds Favoring a June Rate Cut Keep Slip Sliding Away, by John Lonski open.substack.com/pub/thruthecyc… #fedfunds #Treasurybonds #FOMC #economy #inflation #healthcare #restaurants #hotels #construction #governmentspending #budgetdeficit #consumerspending #pcepriceindex #jobsreport #payrolls

Equity and Credit Markets Show No Pressing Need for Fed Rate Cut, by John Lonski open.substack.com/pub/thruthecyc… #debt #FederalDebt #FOMC #Businessdebt #equitybuybacks #stocks #profits #junkbonds #yieldspreads #Baabonds #interestrates #economy #inflation #cash #investmentgrade #debt bomb

Where are the fact checkers? Can't believe how quickly mainstream media and their pundits used 'bloodbath' out of context. Or has the word 'bloodbath' been banned by the woke nerds? #bloodbath

Taken Together -- CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales -- Hint of Stagflation, by John Lonski open.substack.com/pub/thruthecyc… #stagflation #FOMC #CPI #inflation #fedfunds #bonds #junkbonds #interestrates #consumerspending #retailsales #softlanding #economy #jobs #homeprices #mortgagerates

This Is Not the Dawning of the Age of Aquarius, by John Lonski open.substack.com/pub/thruthecyc… #FOMC #wagegrowth #laborcosts #InterestRate #federalfunds #GovernmentEmployees #federalspending #federalbudget #hoursofwork #unemployment #payrolls #jobs #stocks #bonds

Equities Surge, Rate Cut Odds Sink, by John Lonski open.substack.com/pub/thruthecyc… #stocks #dividendyield #interestrates #FOMC #Baabondyield #junkbonds #highyield #GDP #Pricetoearningsmultiples #economy #profits

Inflation lives! On February 22, the market value of US common stock soared higher by $996 billion for the day, or nearly $1 trillion. #stocks #inflation

As inferred from February 17's historically low 201,000 initial claims for state unemployment benefits, a still tight labor market sustains inflation risks. Rapid wage growth will persist. Higher interest rates loom. #jobs #inflation #wages #stocks #FOMC #InterestRates

Halt to Energy Price Deflation May Stall Progress at Disinflation, by John Lonski open.substack.com/pub/thruthecyc… #cpi #ppi #corePCEpriceindex #FOMC #FederalReserve #healthcare #publicutilities #interestrates #WTIcrudeoil #gasolineprices #energyprices

History Questions Soft Landing Hopes, by John Lonski open.substack.com/pub/thruthecyc… #softlanding #recession #wagegrowth #interestrates #FOMC #Jobs #retailsales #governmentspending #fiscalstimulus #healthcare #healthinsurance #restaurants #ppi #cpi #inflation #unemployment

Intangibles Keep Fed Rate Cuts at Bay, by John Lonski open.substack.com/pub/thruthecyc… #highyield #junkbonds #CPI #wages #inflation #healthcare #economy #retailsales

Does a long-awaited retrenchment by US consumers impend?

Jan-2024’s sa unit auto sales fell by -6.6% mm and by -0.8% yy.

The drop by consumer credit’s YY rise from Dec-2022’s 7.6% to Dec-2023’s 2.4% is very rare for a mature economic upturn. #consumercredit #autos #spending

Powell Says No Pain, No Gain, by John Lonski open.substack.com/pub/thruthecyc… #interestrates #FOMC #jobs #workweek #wages #autosales #inflation #economy #consumerbehaviour #income #fedfunds #Treasurybondyields #stocks #bonds

Powell Says No Pain, No Gain, by John Lonski open.substack.com/pub/thruthecyc… #fomc #jeromepowell #fedfunds #Treasurybondyields #inflation #wageinflation #wagepricespiral #hoursofwork #workweek #jobs #consumerspending

Support for a marked slowing of real consumer spending comes from January’s -6.6% monthly plunge by sales of cars and light trucks to a seasonally adjusted and annualized pace of 15.5 million units – the lowest since December 2021’s 14.0 million. #consumerbehaviour #autosales

More jobs, less work! Despite January's 353K new jobs, a -0.6% plunge by average workweek shrank Jan-24's total hours of private-sector work by -0.2%. #jobs #hoursofwork #workethic

Private education & health services accounted for 112K, or 32%, of January's 353K new jobs -- well above the category's 16% share of outstanding jobs. #jobs #economy #healthcare

January's 4.5% yearly jump by average hourly wage boosts inflation risks. Average hourly wages rose by 0.6% but a -0.6% decline by average workweek left average weekly earnings slightly lower. #jobs #wages #income

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting model now expects Q1-2024’s real GDP to expand by 4.2% annualized from 2023’s final quarter.

If Q1-2024’s real GDP grows by more than 3.5% annualized from Q4-2023, the material risk of another Fed rate hike will return.
#economy #FOMC