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The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

Official X account for The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets. Email us: [email protected]

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linkhttp://thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe calendar_today10-06-2015 00:34:15

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Central banks are facing the most synchronized rate-cutting cycle since the Great Financial Crisis.

10 out of 11 major central banks are expected to cut rates in the second half of this year, the most in 16 years.

In the last 40 years, there was only one occurrence when all 11…

Central banks are facing the most synchronized rate-cutting cycle since the Great Financial Crisis. 10 out of 11 major central banks are expected to cut rates in the second half of this year, the most in 16 years. In the last 40 years, there was only one occurrence when all 11…
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You can't make this up:

People are now buying gold bars at the Costco self checkout.

Costco is selling over $200 million of gold bars every month.

But don't worry, the economy is 'strong.'

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The US tech sector as a percentage of the S&P 500 is now at its largest since the 2000 Dot-com bubble.

The technology sector now accounts for 30% of the S&P 500 compared to 33% at the March 2000 peak.

This is an even larger percentage than the energy bubble of the 1980s and the…

The US tech sector as a percentage of the S&P 500 is now at its largest since the 2000 Dot-com bubble. The technology sector now accounts for 30% of the S&P 500 compared to 33% at the March 2000 peak. This is an even larger percentage than the energy bubble of the 1980s and the…
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The S&P 500's performance has been truly outstanding this year.

The index is up 9% year to date which is more than DOUBLE the average YTD return in an election year.

In the past, the median return during a US presidential election year was about 11%.

There are still several…

The S&P 500's performance has been truly outstanding this year. The index is up 9% year to date which is more than DOUBLE the average YTD return in an election year. In the past, the median return during a US presidential election year was about 11%. There are still several…
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Inflows to investment-grade corporate bond funds are on pace for a record year.

Cumulative annual flows to investment-grade bond funds have reached $500 billion year to date.

When markets expected 6 rate cuts in 2024, corporate bond demand surged.

Now, interest rate cuts are…

Inflows to investment-grade corporate bond funds are on pace for a record year. Cumulative annual flows to investment-grade bond funds have reached $500 billion year to date. When markets expected 6 rate cuts in 2024, corporate bond demand surged. Now, interest rate cuts are…
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Affordability in the US is getting even worse:

US wage growth fell to ~3.1% in March, back to the 2019 average.

Low-wage workers have seen wage growth from 11.5% in 2022 to 3.2% now.

Wage growth continues to underperform inflation which means that real wages are declining.

To…

Affordability in the US is getting even worse: US wage growth fell to ~3.1% in March, back to the 2019 average. Low-wage workers have seen wage growth from 11.5% in 2022 to 3.2% now. Wage growth continues to underperform inflation which means that real wages are declining. To…
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What has happened historically when the Fed started cutting rates?

Interest rate cuts conducted outside of recessions have been bullish in the past.

Since 1950, if the US economy did not experience a recession within a year of the first Fed cut the S&P 500 was always up 3 and 9…

What has happened historically when the Fed started cutting rates? Interest rate cuts conducted outside of recessions have been bullish in the past. Since 1950, if the US economy did not experience a recession within a year of the first Fed cut the S&P 500 was always up 3 and 9…
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Shelter inflation in the United States remains a major issue as it stands at 5.7%.

Inflation for renters was 5.68% in March while inflation for homeowners was 5.65%.

The median national rent price for a single family home is nearly $2,000/month.

Meanwhile, the median payment…

Shelter inflation in the United States remains a major issue as it stands at 5.7%. Inflation for renters was 5.68% in March while inflation for homeowners was 5.65%. The median national rent price for a single family home is nearly $2,000/month. Meanwhile, the median payment…
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