Jorge (@jorge7117679666) 's Twitter Profile
Jorge

@jorge7117679666

Interested in geopolitics. I like to contradict. To understand current events it is necessary to analyze them within their historical context.

ID: 1848046771374587904

calendar_today20-10-2024 17:01:17

497 Tweet

19 Followers

40 Following

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I see an interesting "dilemma" for the conservative justices in Trump v. Barbara. It comes down to a classic tension in their jurisprudence: originalism/textualism (what did "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" mean in 1868?) versus respect for precedent and over a century of

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For the first time in over 50 years, humans are flying around the Moon. Artemis II launched yesterday with 4 astronauts on board, and a 10-day journey that takes us back to where Apollo 17 left off in 1972. No landing. Just a test. But The Moon is no longer a memory; it's a

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Morocco, which has decades of friction with Spain, just became Africa's top US arms buyer. F-16s. Apaches. HIMARS. $8.5 BILLION. Spain has no Apaches. Spain funds NATO at 2.1%. Spain chose the Tiger helicopter over the Apache in 1998; its own experts now call it "a fiasco." And

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Las fuerzas estadounidenses no pueden esperar salvar a cada aviador en cada conflicto. Pero en una guerra de alta intensidad y asimétrica vomo la de Iran, donde los medios de comunicación nacionales y un partido político actúan sistemáticamente como quinta columna del enemigo, el

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A mi entender, no existe una ley internacional que otorgue a Irán el derecho de controlar el estrecho de Ormuz ni de cobrar peaje por el tránsito. La Convención de la ONU sobre el Derecho del Mar (UNCLOS) lo prohíbe explícitamente, aunque Irán nunca la ratificó. La pregunta es:

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A Trump se le cataloga como ignorante y pedante, pero un detalle estratégico ha pasado casi inadvertido: envió a Vance a negociar y no a Rubio. La elección no fue casual. Vance ha sido la voz más consistente dentro del Partido Republicano en contra de una confrontación con Irán.

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Trump's decision to send VP JD Vance, the GOP's most prominent anti-war voice, to lead Iran negotiations was no accident. It was a calculated sacrifice. Returning empty-handed after long hours of talks, Vance's failure was the point. It neutralized Republican pacifist voices

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Péter Magyar y su partido Tisza acaban de ganar las elecciones con una supermayoría. Tras 16 años, Viktor Orbán reconoce la derrota. El caballo de Troya de Putin en Europa desaparece y se abre una nueva era para Hungría y sus socios de la UE: más fondos europeos para iniciativas

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The broader lesson regarding the Eric Swalwell outcome: in high-stakes politics, personal baggage is tolerated until it's not.

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Swawell's departure from politics is an example that political parties don't care about scandals. They care about leverage. Swalwell's situation isn't about ethics, it's about what happens when the machine decides you're not useful anymore. Parties aren't moral arbiters but

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El sufrimiento humano es universal, pero la atención no. Gaza tiene narrativas claras y peso ideológico en Occidente; generando cobertura y presión institucional. Sudán tiene millones de desplazados, miles de muertos y casi ninguna cobertura ni indignación moral.

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NYC plans to spend $30M building its first city-owned grocery store in East Harlem. Private chains like ALDI often open stores of a similar size for a small fraction of that cost. Urban sites and public projects present unique challenges that are not foreseen during political

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The ship of the military operation against Iran is already on the high seas, sailing with the wind at its back, and there is no turning back. Disagreement over the methods is legitimate. But what about the objective? How many share it in silence? Europe faces today one of its

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El barco de la operación militar contra Irán ya está en alta mar, con viento en popa, y no hay vuelta atrás. El desacuerdo sobre los métodos es legítimo. Pero ¿y el objetivo? ¿Cuántos lo comparten en silencio? Europa enfrenta hoy uno de sus equilibrios políticos con los USA más

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The Vance-Rubio 2028 run dynamics remain among the most-watched political storylines in the post-2024 Trump world, but it's still very early. Who is your bet?

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Regarding all the noise and the threat about the US leaving NATO, it is all hot air. Congress passed a law (2024 NDAA, §1250A) that requires a 2/3 Senate vote or an Act of Congress to exit. The US leaving NATO is NOT a presidential decision, but a congressional one.

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En Irán, tres bandas compiten por el poder: la banda de Vahidi/Zolghadr, el IRGC y el búnker tratan de retener el control que los Ghalibaf les disputan desde la mesa de negociación, mientras Zakani, el alcalde de Teherán, juega al mejor postor. Esta situación hace muy difícil

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The USA's diplomatic intent is facing a classic revolutionary regime pathology: external pressure meets internal cannibalism. The Iranian "bunker" mentality and IRGC supremacy make stable deals elusive. The USA didn't contemplate this scenario.

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The 20th century needed gulags, breadlines, exiles, and 70 years to discredit Marxist/Leninist economics. Mayor Mamdani is apparently offering New York City the accelerated course. The Marx this time is Groucho.