The US seems to be fighting $20k drones with $2M missiles in the Red Sea. Seems wildly inefficient. Would this level of inefficiency work in a more significant conflict? I worry it would not.

The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity will be live streamed tomorrow and Friday. Great program! (Sure, I am biased.) Tune in:

brookings.edu/events/bpea-sp…

🚨 Call for papers 🚨

Cowles Summer Conference in Macroeconomics, organized by Jon Steinsson and me.

The conference will take place Yale University, June 6-7, 2024. The topic is “Applied and Empirical Macroeconomics.”

Send us your best work by March 29: cowles.yale.edu/conferences/fo…

Amazing poverty reduction in India over the past few decades. One is tempted to conclude that capitalism and economic growth are a (really) good thing. (Not to mention democracy.)

One month.
1.5 million shells.
We Europeans have gotten used to mediocre leadership for too long-all words, no action. President Pavel reminds us of the enormous difference it makes to have a well qualified, smart, focused and committed person who really wants to help.

In undergrad econ teaching, there is theory-based teaching and case-based teaching. Most teaching (outside MBA programs) - even very non-tech - is heavily theory-based (i.e., about general principles). I feel that there is a missing middle.

The last 10 years of data suggest to me that 3.5% unemployment is full employment. Many earlier expansions where probably just cut off before getting there.

The program meeting of the Monetary Economics program at the NBER will be livestreamed on Youtube tomorrow. Tune in for a great conference

nber.org/conferences/mo…

This is a very interesting discussion!

One note is that in the 70s-80s, credit costs were in fact included in the CPI and were a driver of the dynamics of inflation, as mortgage payments entered directly into the shelter component of the CPI (with an important weight).

1/2

Many say that LLMs don't 'really understand things.' But when I ask people what it means to 'really understand things' no one seems to have an answer. Anyone?

'none of this would have been possible in any place other than Berkeley.

There is in Berkeley a unique combination of total intellectual freedom, deep focus on mentorship and transmission, and exceptional sense of community and collegiality that makes people thrive.'

The Council of Economic Advisers is currently recruiting for a Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Forecasting. If you are interested in applying, please see the full position description and application guidance on our website.
whitehouse.gov/cea/work-for-u…

This table captures well how absolutely essential the steam engine was for the Industrial Revolution. Energy was a crucial bottleneck in the pre-industrial world.

A charitable interpretation is that Lagarde is lamenting theory-induced blindness, which I do think is an endemic illness among us economists (even if models are essential).

Storytime! Here is how and why I switched from working on cash transfers to working on international migration.

If you're still looking to donate this year, it's also a pitch! Donation link at malengo.org. US donations are tax-free.

1/n

This figure is amazing. (Ignore headline. I am focused on Covid period.) No wonder there was a bout of inflation around the world.

Fissures opening one after another (20x speed)

The volcanic eruption in Iceland that just started is only a few km from the town of Grindavik and even closer to the Blue Lagoon. But it seems the lava will flow north (away from the town). The red line on the map is the rift that opened (2800m long). Still very uncertain.

The challenge in macro is not the Phillips curve or the Euler equation as is often supposed. It is how expectations are formed. (Not the only challenge, but a big one.) We make a pitch for more attention to learning in this paper: eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/pa…

I've said this before, but it bears repeating: The Fed's monetary policy has been excellent these last two years.