Russia needs to lose, and lose badly. That's what every dictator on the planet needs to see. Our ability or failure to stop and punish Russia's crimes in #Ukraine will deter or encourage the aggression of dictatorships worldwide, and thereby determine the course of this century.

Thrilled to share our latest work with Adrien Bilal! Check out our new working paper: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲: 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝘃𝘀. 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 Read here: bit.ly/4bsxvU0 Thread below👇

Our panel on the Fed Framework Review at Hoover's monetary policy conference has been posted. My remarks begin at 33:05, if anyone is interested. Other panelists are Athanasios Orphanides, Mickey Levy, and Lawrence H. Summers. Strongly contrasting views. youtube.com/watch?v=uFKeqG…

A friend was naturalized yesterday. At the oath ceremony, newly-minted US citizens received this poignant letter from President Biden. I welled up reading it and am sharing it here.

My guess is that a culture (and policies) that allows women (and men) to combine parenthood and a challenging career (even in their late 20s) is key.

NATO secretaries-general do not normally attack the policies of America, the alliance’s biggest and most important member country. But in an interview with The Economist, Jens Stoltenberg has done just that: econ.st/4bzk84E Photo: Getty Images

I think the real story here is that 50+ GW per year of renewables is pretty much escape velocity. We are beginning to see deep decarbonization. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Many seem to only grudgingly support Biden. Why? He has been an excellent president! CHIPS, IRA, infrastructure, gun safety, elections, etc. But what stands out for me is Ukraine. Very tough issue! Super large risks on both sides. Handled very well.

What J.D. Vance Believes: That tariffs are good partly because they raise wages which will then induce technical change. Interesting argument. nytimes.com/2024/06/13/opi…

Global solar installation is not just growing, and its growth rate is not just growing, the growth rate is accelerating! That is a positive 2nd derivative of installation growth, positive 3rd derivative of installation, and positive 4th derivative of installed capacity.

Ultra-low—and even negative—energy prices in Europe reflect failures in both infrastructure and regulation. There are three main ways that firms and regulators could establish a more efficient market econ.st/4erW8Cx 👇

The first order bottleneck on the climate transition seems no longer to be technology. Now it seems to be regulation.

It is very difficult to read Friedman and Schwartz without knowing how economists used to think about money and how money used to work. Someone only schooled in hyper-modern cashless monetary economics will struggle a lot with Friedman and Schwartz.

To discover how Fed comms matters for fin markets we would like random communication events. But policymakers are typically super careful about what is said. Except in May 2005 when they initially forgot an expected sentence - they fixed the mistake at 16.00. Markets reacted:

Interesting. Seems like the May 2005 monetary shock in HFI monetary shock series should perhaps be dropped.

Seems to me that the FOMC statement is becoming less informative about the path of policy. There was no change in wording of the key paragraph despite expected next meeting move. Signaling seems to be migrating to press conference (even more than before). I am not a fan.

I have nothing against white and gray cars. But do all cars in this country have to be white or gray. That seems to be the trend. Seems like a barren aesthetic (IMHO).

The bond market seems completely unperturbed by the prospect of another Trump presidency. VP Harris is down to 36% according to Nate Silver and not a blip in bond yields (actually they are falling). Seems interesting.