Tory members oppose leadership change by 63%: ConservativeHome survey conservativehome.com/2024/05/03/our…

From the archive, a year ago

Slightly down from 34% last time.

.Sam Coates Sky Would the Conservatives be in a better position if they ditch Rishi Sunak?

Lee Anderson MP “I think Rishi Sunak could fly over the UK and drop £1m down every chimney and they’d still vote him out come October”

The last local election results before a general election were brutal for Gordon Brown in 2009. James Purnell resigned & a coup began. Brown was at his most vulnerable politically in that moment but by defeating the coup, he won himself time & regained some authority.

Have a question about the local election results? Submit it to our chief political commentator John Rentoul here 👉 tinyurl.com/2c3pbfdf

#Top10 Record Con➝Lab postwar by-election swings
Dudley W ’94 29% gain
Wellingboro ’24 29% gain
Blackpool S ’24 26% gain
Tamworth ’23 24% gain
Selby ’23 24% gain
Dagenham ’94 23% hold
SE Staffs ’96 22% gain
Barking ’94 22% hold
Mid Staffs ’90 21% gain
Mid Beds ’23 21% gain

Andrea Jenkyns - the first Tory MP to publicly submit a letter of no confidence in Rishi Sunak - say it's 'unlikely' her colleagues will follow her and trigger a leadership election

John Rentoul Post war.

Number 1 is still Liverpool Wavertree, 1935, with a 30% swing.

The Conservatives are in danger of getting their worst locals result EVER in terms of Projected National Share. Currently tracking close to the 25% they got in 1995 (their worst since the measure began). Too early to call, but something to watch...

Oldham’s Labour council leader Arooj Shah blames ‘Tory austerity’ for her party’s failure to hang on to power in the town

A Gaza effect in the local elections from Will Jennings ... will be useful to see this later for wards that are > 25% Muslim.

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From the archive, 7 years ago

Is it… ‘brisk’?

I’m slightly late to this, but the recent fall in the number of visa applications from health and social care workers is truly remarkable. Down from 18,300 applicants in August 2023 to 2,400 in March 2024.

gov.uk/government/sta…

Tomorrow's @independent front page. To subscribe to the Daily Edition independentsubscriptions.co.uk

True, this dividinglines.substack.com/p/black-hole