Jim Puplava and I had a great conversation on June 6 Listen to why the 10-year Treasury yield could be headed to 7.5% in the next 5 years The charts we discussed on are the Financial Sense website financialsense.com/podcast/21300/… MacroTides.com

Looking forward to chatting with Tracy Shuchart and Anthony Crudele Today at 8:20 am EST from Ninja Trader Live

May CPI - No inflation! 6-9 WTR Bigger story Average takeaway from May - August 2024 is 0.09% for the Headline CPI and 0.18% for the Core CPI These low take away values from last year virtually guarantee that annual inflation will move higher through August

May CPI No Inflation! BUT Low take away numbers from May-Agusut 2024 Annual Headline CPI will be at least 0.3% higher after the August CPI is released in mid September This will make it more difficult for the FOMC to lower the Funds rate when they meet on September 17

6-9 WTR In February Advance – Decline Line provided a great warning of impending weakness when it failed to confirm the new price high in the S&P 500 on February 19 Different message now June 9 the Advance – Decline Line reached another new all time high Confirmation of uptrend

6-9 WTR The Citi Economic Surprise Index dropped below 0 last week which is supportive of lower Treasury yields As long as the 30-year yield doesn’t close above 5.01% a decline to 4.60% is possible

6-9 WTR The 30-year Treasury yield could test the 4.60% range and TLT could bounce to the blue horizontal trend line near 89.50 and the high at 90.21

6-9 WTR Dollar is expected to decline below 97.92 First correction from the 114.78 high was 15.21 Equal decline from 110.17 projects low near 95.00 Once the Dollar completes Wave C (Blue) rally to at least 105 – 106 Not many people are expecting a rally in the Dollar

6-9 WTR Additional weakness in the Dollar should help Gold rally above 3496 If the Dollar records an important low in coming weeks, Gold is expected to form a significant high Gold bottomed Sept 2022 at 1616 Dollar topping at 114.78 Negatively correlated for last three years

5-27 WTR "If / when the S&P 500 rallies above 5968 it will complete a 5 wave rally from 4835 (green), whether it tests 6147 or not. The completion of a 5 wave rally will be followed by a pullback that retraces a portion of the 5 wave rally.” The S&P rallied to 6059 in 6-11

6-9 WTR The 30-year Treasury yield could test the 4.60% range and TLT could bounce to the blue horizontal trend line near 89.50 and the high at 90.21 A close above 87.00 will signal the move to 89.50 – 90.21 is starting TLT closed above 87.00 today

6-16 WTR Thread #1 The majority of FOMC members are unlikely to alter their economic outlook materially The June SEP will resemble the SEP from the March meeting with only small tweaks GDP for 2026 may be lowered from 1.8%

6-16 WTR #2 The June SEP will resemble the SEP from the March meeting with only small tweaks PCE inflation may be slightly increased for 2026 from 2.2% for the Headline and Core The Unemployment Rate lifted from 4.3% to 4.4%.

6-16 WTR #3 The March Dot Plot break down: 4 members no cut, 4 members 1 cut, 9 members 2 cuts, and 2 members 3 cuts When the FOMC met in March there were 6 future meetings that would allow the FOMC to lower the Funds rate, but there are only 4 meetings left after June meeting

WTR 6-16 #4 This increases the odds that more FOMC members will project 1 less cut before year end than projected in March The level of uncertainty isn’t lower than when the FOMC met in March The financial markets will likely react with a shrug since uncertainty is so high

Check out my latest article: President Trump Belittles Chair Powell THE FOMC will want clear data to lower the Funds rate so they don't look like they gave into Presient Trump's pressure linkedin.com/pulse/presiden… via LinkedIn

Happy 4th of July! Hope it's spent with family and friends

Hope you're spending the 4th with family and friends! And not talking about politics

Sentiment and positioning has reached a level that preceded corrections in 2024

NYSE Advacne - Decline Line making higher highs Longer term outlook constructive But doesn't preclude a correction in the near term The strength of the reason to sell will determine whether the correction is -3% to -7% Caveat: Treasury yields breakout 10 yr >5.0% 30 yr 5.15%