Will quantitative tightening be inflationary? The evidence is mounting. My latest: latest.13d.com/quantitative-t…

The y/y change in M2 velocity turned positive in Q1 (+0.6%)—the first positive reading in almost 8 years—while the growth rate of M2 declined and the CPI growth rate accelerated.

Favorable US interest rate spreads don’t guarantee a strong dollar. During 2002-2006, the 10-year UST-vs.-bund spread rose 184 basis points, but instead of rising, the trade-weighted broad dollar index fell 16%, as the Federal budget deficit worsened.

Tighter monetary policy is causing M2 velocity to rise and inflation to follow. My latest for 13D Research & Strategy latest.13d.com/quantitative-t…

Will QT be inflationary? Inflation expectations have been rising while money-supply growth contracts. latest.13d.com/quantitative-t…

The eroding purchasing power of the U.S. dollar: As the dollar weakens, food and energy will take up a greater share of consumer spending.

The last two times this divergence widened to extremes, bear markets soon followed. Will this time be any different? My latest: latest.13d.com/eroding-purcha…

There is little margin for error as free-money ends: non-discretionary spending is growing as a share of consumption, but stock market gains mainly accrued to the top 1%. latest.13d.com/eroding-purcha…

Will the petrodollar increasingly be displaced by the petroyuan? China’s gross crude oil imports surpassed the U.S. for the first time last year. While U.S. petroleum consumption has declined marginally since 2005, Chinese petroleum consumption has risen by nearly 80%.

The long-predicted breakup of OPEC will have to wait. Excess oil stocks are almost gone and the Saudis want $80 crude. wsj.com/articles/what-…

The eroding purchasing power of the dollar: oil prices are breaking out, U.S. summer gasoline prices are likely to be their highest in 4 years and household gasoline expenditures are approaching 2007 levels.

According to the latest IEA estimates, OECD petroleum stocks might fall below the 5-year average sometime this summer, when demand is seasonally strong.

The eroding purchasing power of the dollar: home prices and mortgage rates have risen to nearly 5-year highs, outstripping the growth rate of family income. cnbc.com/2018/04/13/hou…

Brent crude is breaking out, with spare oil capacity near historic lows and a cauldron of violence brewing in the Middle East. cnbc.com/2018/04/13/oil…

Energy may have a small weighting in the CPI, but inflation expectations are highly correlated with crude oil prices. cnbc.com/2018/04/20/the…

The relative strength of the OSX Index, after falling 81% over 10 years, recently broke out of its 15-month downtrend line. Is this the beginning of a new bull market for oilfield services?

Is capital discipline finally improving in U.S. shale oil? E&P companies that are buying back stock are outperforming, while capital-raising is down by more than half over 4 years.

Will QT be inflationary in practice? Rising interest rates and inflation in drilling costs could slow-down the growth rate of new shale-oil projects, helping push oil prices higher.

At 0.73 percentage points, the GDP-growth contribution from personal consumption in 1Q-2018 was at its lowest level in nearly 5-years—despite the impact of lower tax withholding.

The year-over-year change in the CPI (red) is accelerating faster than wages, as nominal hourly wage growth (blue) remains below the recovery peak of 2.83% in September 2017.