August was a brutal month for European gas demand; the lowest I could find this century. Seasonal use should lift demand slightly in September, though Y/Y losses will continue due to lower industrial & power sector use tied to stubbornly higher prices. #ONGT Center on Global Energy Policy

BREAKING: Brent oil tumbles below $75 a barrel, erasing all year-to-date gains. From my @Opinion column from early Aug: "OPEC+ is victim of its own success. It kept crude prices too high for too long [...] subsidizing its arch-enemies in Texas" #OOTT bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

EXCLUSIVE: The largest privately-owned company in America faces leaner times. Cargill reported net income of $2.48 billions in its 2024 fiscal year — the lowest in nearly a decade, and less than half the record high it posted in FY2022. @Opinion #OATT bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

OPEC+ faces a quagmire: It can delay its 4Q output hike to defend prices >$75. But that doesn't resolve the big S/D 1H 2025 surplus. If OPEC+ wants to defend prices then, it would need to **cut output**, rather than delay hikes. Simply, the oil price Saudis want is too high.

Some statistics: Saudi oil production is today lower than 20 years ago. Oil prices, adjusted by inflation, are the same as in 2004. Saudi population has increased >50% in the last 20 years. #OOTT #SaudiArabia

CHART OF THE DAY: Not only Brent oil prices have fallen sharply (flat prices), but the entire price curve (time-spreads) has flattened significantly. Today's curve remains backwardated, but inter-month spreads for 2025 are flirting with contago as traders price a surplus. #OOTT

REACTION COLUMN: The OPEC+ oil cartel has delayed a planned output hike by two months. It's the bare minimum to support prices. But looking at the 2025 balance of supply and demand, OPEC+ is simply kicking the can down a very uphill road. @Opinion #OOTT bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

OIL MARKET: The Brent crude curve has flattened even further, with multiple inter-month spreads for 2Q and 3Q falling into single-cent backwardation (Apr-May and May-June at 8-9¢ per barrel). The oil market is flirting with contango for the middle of next year | #OOTT

[ICYMI] COLUMN: The OPEC+ oil cartel has delayed a planned output hike by two months. It's the bare minimum to support prices. But looking at the 2025 supply and demand balance, OPEC+ is simply kicking the can down a very uphill road. @Opinion #OOTT bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

OIL MARKET: JPMorgan says OPEC+ will be forced to delay indefinitely its output hike. Even so, it forecasts Brent to average $75 a barrel in 2025, "with prices dipping into low-$60s by year-end" "[To] maintain prices in the $80s, OPEC+ members would need to cut deeper" #OOTT

OIL MARKET: Bank of America too. It forecasts a surplus in 2025, lowering its average Brent price to $75 a barrel (if OPEC+ stays put the whole year). If OPEC+ moves to boost production, it sees that as akin to a "a market share war", with Brent averaging $60 a barrel | #OOTT

Mmmmm, one always risks over-reading Saudi Aramco official selling prices (OSPs). But the just announced ones for October don't scream as if the kingdom sees a lot of Asian demand. At +$1.30 vs Oman/Dubai benchmarks, Saudi Light OSP for Asia is weakest in ~3 years | #OOTT

Say it softly, softly... Contango is coming back to oil #OOTT

Brent crude has settled at $71.06 a barrel, marking the lowest closing price since December 2021, weeks **before** Russia invaded Ukraine. The benchmark has lost nearly 10% this week despite Saudi Arabia and its allies delaying an oil production increase by two months | #OOTT