unpopular opinion but the whole "no drinking" vibe is correlated with a massive spike in social isolation. yes, binge drinking is bad, but going out for a glass of wine or a beer with friends on the regular actually has positive effects that outweigh the negative health

NEW Treasury effectively confirms debt rule loosening, by announcing its new “guardrails” to channel capital spending goes to a 10 year pipeline of major projects that generate economic returns that will help “depoliticise infrastructure” bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

Huge news for early birds

Can’t believe I have to keep posting this picture

I was asked by Stephen Nolan how many basic rate taxpayers there are in NI. HMRC data suggests there are 894,000 income taxpayers in NI. The vast majority, 780,000, are in basic rate (20%) bracket, 97,000 pay higher (40%) rate & a further 9,000 pay the additional (45%) rate.

The Budget in 5 points 1. Borrowing increase (quite large) 2. Spending increase (small) 3. Capital spending increase (quite small) 4. Tax increase (large) 5. Fiscal headroom (small)

There's going to be a lot of unhappiness about tax increases, but it's important to keep a sense of perspective here. Today's 40bn increase means UK taxes are high by historical standards, but not necessarily internationally 👇

Poorest households gain most, wealthiest pay most in the Budget - Treasury impact assessment.

For all the outrage, taxes are up much more because of the choices of the previous government than this one - as Office for Budget Responsibility’s chart 4.5 confirms

GBP up, Gilt yields & spreads to US debt lower. Stage 1 of the "Kwarteng test" passed for the UK Chancellor. Stage 2 is avoiding slipping back into negativity/blame game as UK growth outcomes will hinge not on the additional public spending/investment, but the far larger sums on

Those very loudly opposing today’s changes need to own the fact that it means you support a completely undeliverable and economically/socially disastrous return to austerity

The £1.5bn Barnett consquential for Stormont due to the budget is a 10% increase in its budget.

the Amish after flipping Pennsylvania

Thoughts and prayers for Mark Rutte, who has overnight gone from having a challenging but fun sinecure to having the hardest job in world politics

It really feels like the eagle just showed up at Numenor to give his blessing to the woman of color and then the entirely wrong guy somehow became in charge

5 year gilt rate now 10 basis points below morning of Budget…. Not far off going below 4% again… important for 5 year fixed mortgages… 10 year and 2 year also 10 bps down… All back within a few bps (ie under 0.1%) of where they were on election day….

If you’re a manufacturer who wants tariff free access to the EU & Britain with just a 10% tariff on exports to the US there’s one place.

TRIH tickets booked for April at the Waterfront in Belfast - Dominic Sandbrook Tom Holland. A dangerous night to be a creamy pint or a leader who is robust in Ireland! Cannot wait 🙏

Turns out the OBR security password was ‘Louvre1’

Really enjoying my first day as Press Officer at the OBR! Oooh, what's this, a scheduled e-mail? Better send it now, just to show how keen I am!