A campaign is saying they’re the underdog even though they’re polling ahead? Their internals are more conservative than the public numbers? I’m just hearing this for the first time.

Harris rallying in Detroit on Labor Day like every Democrat from Truman to Carter… must be reading mkazin

Clinton Coffee goes hard

"When they've punished you enough, they'll serve you salmon and potato salad, make speeches, give you a medal, and pat you in the back telling all is forgiven. Just remember, it won't be for you it would be for them."

It took GWB a decade to recover in America’s eyes. Biden has less ground to make up but looks like he might do it simply by dropping out of the 2024 race. Also, Trump being just +3-5 on economy and immigration over Harris is 🚨 for him.

manifesting circle: 🕯 🕯 🕯 🕯 Taylor Fritz 🕯 Francis Tiafoe 🕯 Semifinals Match 🕯 🕯 🕯 🕯 everyone light a candle

🙋🏻‍♂️Not non-existent! We’re dropping the latest in our nonpartisan House polling series — toss-up Oregon 5 — tomorrow.

🚨New OR-05 poll from Inside Elections/Noble Predictive Insights - the latest in our House battleground series. Chavez-DeRemer (R-inc) 42 Bynum (D) 43 Trump 42 Harris 50 Fav/unfav Chavez-DeRemer 39/30 Bynum 28/20 Harris 47/51 Trump 42/55 8/26-28, 419 LVs insideelections.com/news/article/o…

Larry Hogan probably the only Republican in the country running ads talking about Jan. 6? Has a new spot in Maryland that highlights his opposition to Trump and his decision to send the MD National Guard to the Capitol on Jan. 6.

Less remarked on than the presidential shift but Democrats moved into a clear lead in the generic ballot after Biden dropped out. Generic ballot was neck-and-neck from Nov 2023 to July 2024, with neither ahead >1.4%. That's changed post-July 21. July 21: R+0.6 Today: D+2.5

Newly relevant Twitter poll >>

We don’t have to do this

On this week’s Inside Elections podcast, we talk to Chuck Todd about everything from Sunday shows to the 2024 election to Miami football. I asked him what his most memorable MTP interview was: “I hate the interview. I hate seeing clips of it. So it’s memorable — but I hate it.”

Nothing against the underlying data but I always find it funny when graphics in polling memos are not drawn to scale in interesting ways...

New MONTANA poll from FabrizioWard (R)/Binder Research (D) for the AARP: Senate Tester (D-inc) 45 Sheehy (R) 51 Tester 41 Sheehy 49 Daoud (L) 4 Downey (G) 1 Pres Trump 56 Harris 41 Fav/unfav Tester 43/52 Sheehy 48/45 600 LVs, 8/25-29, mixed mode aarp.org/pri/topics/vot…

The bear case for Tester is Heidi Heitkamp or Joe Donnelly 2018. The bull case? Susan Collins in 2020; she led in 2 polls in all of that calendar year, and trailed in the average by 7 points on Election Day before winning by 8.

Starting to see some substantial ad buys from a GOP super PAC, "Eighteen Fifty-Four Fund," that's primarily funded through the 501c4 "dark money" group Common Sense Leadership Fund. $1 million in TV ads in WI-01 and WI-03 each $2.3 million in PA-10 $2.2 million in PA-17