Now that the #SP500 has broken strongly above its previous record high, the 6-week correction is over and we can expect it to move up strongly. How far will it go? In our tweet of 25-1-24 we said our calculations showed that it would reach 6458 sometime in the next 2 years.

On Friday, the #SP500 closed about half a percent below its record close of 5254. This almost certainly means that it will break to a new record high soon. There is an outside possibility of a 'double top' forming, but the excessive optimism in the market now makes that unlikely.

On 15th April we drew attention to the fact that cycle highs in the price of #gold were inevitably marked by a 'shooting star' candle - and that on Friday 12th April the shooting star in gold suggested that the metal's price would begin a downward trend. That is now happening.

As predicted in my article (below) the #SP500 opened up 0,5%. Then it quickly fell back to just above yesterday's close. It has now rallied again and looks to be forming a convincing 'hammer' formation - which is very bullish, at least in the short-term. We expect further upside.

I've just published a new article on PDSNet website discussing the recent developments in the S&P500 index and its implications for global markets. #SP500 #StockMarket #BullMarket #MarketTrends #FinancialNews #MarketCorrection
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The expected correction is well under way in the #SP500 . It is now down 4,4% on its record high of 5254 made on 28-3-24. We expect that it will end up falling close to resistance at the previous record high of 4796. In other words, the correction will take it down 8,7% in the end

This chart shows the US$ price of #gold since March 2024. Note the 'shooting star' formations which occurred at the last two cyclical peaks on 4-5-23 and 1-12-23. Yesterday, a similar formation indicated that the upward surge in gold may have peaked - at least in the short term.

The loss of upward momentum in the #SP500 became obvious last night with its 1,23% drop. There is less and less confidence in that the first decline in interest rates will come in June. The correction, if this is it, is long overdue. We see it as being quite severe.

The Confidential Report - April 2024
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The area above 5100 on the #SP500 does not appear to be sustainable and, as indicated earlier, a correction looks imminent. The 'backing and filling' above this level signifies a loss of upward momentum. The market now fears that the #Fed will delay reducing rates beyond June.

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The Confidential Report open.substack.com/pub/pdsnet/p/t…

Forward P:Es on the 'Magnificent 7' tech stocks on #WallStreet are around 30 - which is very high. A correction is overdue and Nvidia's over-discounted impending results give you the recipe for a downward move. As previously indicated, the #SP500 should retrace to support at 4796

The strength of the upward trend on the #SP500 indicates excessive bullishness. Note the 'shooting stars' at the bottom of the cycles showing that the bulls are again 'buying the dips' with abandon. In our view, this upward momentum cannot be sustained.

Now that the #SP500 has broken above 5000 the market is being driven more by euphoria than intelligence. The smart money is selling out into the strength. This can be seen in the recent weakness of the #rand . Risk-off sentiment should now take the S&P back to support at 4796.

The 1,6% drop in the #SP500 yesterday indicates that the correction which we predicted in 23rd January is now under way. The index should bounce off support at 4796 in the short term - and then continue upwards after that.

The #Oil price just keeps on climbing - which is good for #Putin and bad for #Biden , especially in an election year. We reiterate that some kind of correction on the #SP500 is imminent. The #Rand is still in a downward trend which indicates that 'risk-off' sentiment is growing.

So now that we are breaking new record highs on the #SP500 almost every day, it is fitting to ask how high it will go. Our calculations indicate that will reach 6458 some time in the next two years. The upward trend will certainly be broken by corrections.

It is now reasonable to expect that the #SP500 will correct back towards the previous high at 4796. What was a resistance level before should then act as a support level. The weakness in the #rand since 16th Jan suggests that a shift towards 'risk-off' is in progress.

As expected, the #SP500 has broken up to a new intra-day record high. We expect the upward trend to gain momentum now, especially if the index can close above the previous record of 4796.56 on successive days. The JSE will follow - despite the negative prospects for the economy.