Justin Vélez-Hagan
@jvelezhagan
Macro-Investing & Fiscal Policy. Author @FiscalParadox @Nousonomics • Founder @PolicyMacro & @NPRChamber • PhD Economic Policy • Veteran • SoliDeoGloria
ID: 365479827
http://JustinVH.com 31-08-2011 14:23:32
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🚨HOLY COW: Margin debt* just crossed $1 trillion in June for the first time since 2021. July could come in near $1.1 trillion. Risk appetite among retail investors is off the charts. *The amount of money that an investor borrows from its broker.👇 globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stock-mar…
Stats that matter: Families, companies, and capital vote Virginia. Governor Glenn Youngkin leads one of the greatest turnarounds the country has seen (I just follow from row 2)
Federal government shutdowns--w/about 25% of the gov. funding lapsing--are not new. They aren't great for the economy, but more important are a symptom of fiscal failures that lead to fiscal crises. If history is an indicator, we'll have a clean CR--but how long? Fiscal Lab on Capitol Hill
About a 40 percent chance that the shutdown lasts more than two weeks, trading now on Polymarket.
We're very lucky to have high quality private sector data on the labor market courtesy of ADP Research while government data publication is suspended. BUT: a reminder that employment growth's value as a cyclical indicator is hamstrung by labor supply fluctuations.