Resale homes are older, need work, and there aren’t many for sale (lock-in, etc.). All of this helped homebuilders this cycle.

The story shifts when you compare California (super old housing and very locked-in) vs. Florida and Texas (newer housing and not as locked-in).

Sometimes I have an idea for a housing chart purely to make sense of many data points rolling through my head, namely how they relate over time.

This is an example of that process showing how resale sales, listings, and price appreciation move together back to 2000.

#WFH is a huge boon for home builders.

1. People can live further from work, where there is land, increasing demand where the home builders tend to build.

2. Existing homes were not designed with working from home in mind, and new homes can be.
wsj.com/style/design/w…

Our John Burns Research and Consulting data on the broader investor home purchase topic was used in this Will Parker The Wall Street Journal article today, but thought I'd share the chart on builders and single-family rental, as that topic doesn't get accurately depicted outside of the work we do. wsj.com/real-estate/wa…

The bogus policy spin on investor home purchases (namely from builders) still dominates headlines. For perspective, we ask homebuilders what percent of their sales go directly to single-family rental operators. That figure has been a whopping 1.5% to 2% nationally since 2019...

It’s not a coincidence that housing markets where resale supply is now rising the fastest also had a new home construction boom this cycle. Any red market below saw new home construction this cycle exceed the 2004-2006 subprime peak.

I was quite surprised to learn that debt and equity capital is returning to the apartment market, both for development and acquisition.

Here is our latest survey on development financing.

Thank you to National Apartment Association for partnering with us on this survey.

Florida - especially Southwest Florida - is a tough resale market right now. Echoes of natural disasters (hurricane Ian) and rising costs (insurance) are hard for homeowners to cope with, especially those on fixed incomes.

Seeing net out-migration in places like Fort Myers.

Today’s data on declining US fertility was not great. But falling births in the US isn’t a permanent, foregone conclusion.

Fertility rates are increasing among 25- to 44-year-old women, a group projected to encompass 50 million in the US by 2033.

76% of real estate agents say buyers outnumber sellers nationally, per our survey.

Limited new home construction doesn’t add enough supply to meet buyer demand.

Gross margin strength has been a key homebuilder earnings theme this quarter. Makes sense when you look at how homebuilders have been able to raise prices in most regions of the country at a pace that exceeds cost creep (chart below from our builder survey).

BNPL loans seem like underrated source of risk, and the lack of reporting makes it a challenge to track. We found that 1/3 of consumers use these loans with some regularity, and 1/8 use them monthly or more often.

Seems like the 1st place you'd see distress in a slowing economy.

Home design tips for challenged Gen Z home buyers:

* Willing to compromise on an attached garage and a dining area

* Unwilling to compromise on storage & outdoor connections

Just a few of the findings from the New Home Trends Institute team.
probuilder.com/gen-z-wants

Good read on disarray in China’s housing market. We’ve seen a simultaneous surge in foreign buyer activity here in the US (namely Chinese investing in Southern California), and think uncertainty around housing in China is a catalyst ⁦Cao Li⁩. wsj.com/world/china/ch…

What gives?
Despite concluding that we most likely added 4 million more immigrants than usual the last 2 years, and concluding that housing demand is picking up because of immigration, 494 remodelers we just surveyed report that labor is getting harder to find - not easier.

Need to know what Generative AI, including LLMs, really are and how to leverage them for your business? ⬇️

jbrec.com/insights/large…

Why is there a massive housing shortage?

How about a 25% decline since the beginning of Covid-19 in the number of actively selling new home communities nationwide?!

Privately-owned home builder communities are down 27%, and publicly-traded home builder communities are down 20%.

79% of households think it's important to correctly 'time the market' when buying a home.

This is despite the fact that most home purchases occur due to a life stage change - new job, marriage, kids, empty nest, etc.

One month out from our John Burns Research and Consulting Summit conference (speakers below). Always a ton of great discussions, including Neil Dutta RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research who I'll be sitting down with again for our annual temperature check on the economy and Fed.

Gen Z homeownership is lower than Millennials, Gen X, or Baby Boomers at the same ages.

'The entire Gen Z population, including those living with family or roommates,... are less likely to be homeowners than [millennials, Gen X, or Baby Boomers] at the same stage of life.'