#recession ... #GFC2 US TREASURY #Bonds edition

Noel was the voice of volatility reason (saying that implied vol was overvalued during bear market of 2022). Consistently fading vol spikes.

Now, he thinks vol is too cheap. Interesting 🤔

Joseph has been saying for 2+ years that market is pricing in too dovish a Fed. (And been right.)

Now, he says the opposite. I am paying attention!

Bank of New York Mellon is reportedly laying off up to 560 project managers (of 800)

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Consumer edition

JUST IN: New X accounts will now be required to pay a small annual fee before they’re able to post, like, bookmark, and reply, per X News Daily.

Elon Musk has said: Unfortunately, a small fee for new user write access is the only way to curb the relentless onslaught of bots.

#recession ... #StockMarket Bubble edition

#options #OptionsTrading 🥶

For years, I repeated the ideas that 1) missile defense can't work, and 2) the F-35 is a non-functional boondoggle.

Both of these turned out to be wrong. So I tried to figure out why so many of us pundits made these mistakes, and how we can do better.

noahpinion.blog/p/why-so-many-…

prime aged employee/population ratio is maxed out...55+yr/old employee/population ratio beginning a secular decline as all the net 55+ population growth among 65+ and 75+yr/olds w/ incredibly low LFP%'s...
trees don't grow to the sky and unsustainably high prime labor force fails…

in the old days, when countries telegraphed all their military moves to the enemy ahead of time, they'd have to read about it in the newspaper

1) Iran attacks Israel.

2) Oil spikes.

3) Israel counter-attacks Iran.

4) Oil in Yen spikes.

5) The Bank of Japan panics to save the Yen.

6) Treasuries initially sell-off hard then reverse.

7) Reverse carry trade.

8) Global margin call.

9) Stocks crash.

WE'RE FUCKED.

MCCONNELL: IRAN IS NOT DETERRED, IT IS ACTUALLY EMBOLDENED

Demand destruction will always trump supply disruption with oil.

Usually ever pop in oil on war drums gets sold.

$XLE is different. It was at 99% tile extension so just reverting to mean.

I did warn last week: spiking higher yields would see commodities pause & mess with folks…

IBM is reportedly eliminating half of its diversity, equity, and inclusion division - source: “Global D&I team has been cut in half. IBM has let go the global marketplace D&I leader for the Americas, as well as the leaders of the Black, Women, Indigenous communities.”