Intangible value spreadsheets can't capture.

Law makes us progress. Regulation doesn't.

To win at any game, you must survive first.

It's far easier to estimate the impact of an event rather than its probability.

'La libertad, amigo Sancho, es uno de los más preciosos dones que a los hombres dieron los cielos; con ella no pueden igualarse los tesoros que encierra la tierra ni el mar encubre; por la libertad, así como por la honra, se puede y debe aventurar la vida”

(Miguel de Cervantes)

'Big opportunities in life have to be seized. We don't do very many things, but when we get the chance to do something that's right and big, we've got to do it.'

— Warren Buffett

As Ole states, in some fields very different properties arise at group level VS individual. E.g. in financial markets group ruin doesn't exist.

Not understanding this crucial fact and following certain policies (by the legislador or oneself) can hurt the individual.

1/n
A thread about ergodicity economics and world peace, why not.

A quantity is ergodic if its average over an ensemble of systems is the same as its average over time.

Ergodicity economics questions whether ergodicity holds.

But what's that got to do with world peace?

La pregunta es si la IA es beneficiosa para el consumidor final o las compañías.

Buffet explicaba el primer caso genial:

Alguien que se pone de pie en un estadio para ver mejor. Pronto, el resto lo imitan y el resultado final es el mismo que al inicio, pero todos más incómodos.

My Wiki Man this week......

spectator.co.uk/article/how-to…

Must absolutely read

Singing Kumbaya While Deindustrializing
linkedin.com/pulse/singing-…

Con todo el respeto, tenemos que dejar de romantizar y vestir de progreso lo que es un signo de declive y pobreza.

Salvo excepciones, migrar de la ciudad al campo es un retroceso. Y lo mismo ocurre con el tema de compartir alquiler, no tener coche propio etc.

As Munger and Taleb mention, own production maximizes Experience curve + Serendipity.

Looking at China the west is realizing now the hidden costs of producing goods abroad.

Kris 📿🇨🇦 🇦🇱 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Always remember Japan was ground zero for quantitative easing, the most dangerous weapon of mass destruction ever created.

Not really.

La crítica, para un político, es la señal de atención veraz y no falsificada.

La crítica indica que la persona no es aburrida; y ser aburrido es lo único realmente malo para un político.

“All European countries are small amid the new Cold War 2.0 between America and the #DragonBear , but they just don‘t know it yet.
This is how China will treat UK, France, Germany and Italy in the future” via Velina Tchakarova

💥Reality hurts 😖

Europe must decide strategically

The 'off by 100%' bias

Another simple way for retailers to apply psychology to pricing

Clearly described by Nick Kolenda

Professor Taleb teaches us the value of SERENDIPITOUS Black Swans in our lives:

“Look into your own personal life, to your choice of profession, say, or meeting your mate, your exile from your country of origin, the betrayals you faced, your sudden enrichment or impoverishment.

La reforma nunca será tal hasta que no se aborde la transición paulatina a un modelo de capitalización.

Cualquier otra opción es seguir cavando y exponerse a riesgos de cola (tasa de sustitución, baja natalidad, éxodo jóvenes cualificados, aumento esperanza de vida etc).

El sistema de reparto actual es un ancla. Es un sistema que esconde y no soporta riesgos de cola (longevidad, natalidad etc). Cada año que pasa, más nos hunde.

Urge cortar la soga, pero ningun partido o coalición parece querer afrontar el coste.

Tangentially, original DISCOVERY emerges from unintended consequences of tool creation, as described in “The Black Swan” 👇🏻