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The China-US trade ceasefire offers a welcome boost to the outlook, though the negotiation process will likely remain challenging. Our team look at the impact of trade talks on FX, rates and credit. think.ing.com/articles/china…

Commodity markets are trying to balance the pause in US-China tariffs with OPEC+ moves. Here, Warren Patterson explains why think.ing.com/articles/the-c…

Some calm is returning to FX markets after another day of trade-driven volatility. The 90-day pause in the US-China trade war has allowed the dollar to recoup some losses, although we doubt it needs to rally a lot more from current levels. think.ing.com/articles/fx-da…

Despite a big tax hike in April on employers, the UK jobs market is not showing any dramatic signs of deterioration. Hiring conditions are cooling, putting downward pressure on wage growth. That's good news for the Bank of England. think.ing.com/snaps/cooling-…

South Korea's second-quarter GDP prospects look better as jobless rate drops think.ing.com/snaps/korean-u…

The spectre of Iranian sanctions has oil prices on the rise. Here, Warren Patterson explains the state of play think.ing.com/articles/the-c…

Longer rates remain subject to upward pressure as trade tensions are de-escalating, while the front end got some reprieve as the US CPI data soothes imminent inflation fears. think.ing.com/articles/rates…

The US dollar has given back almost all of its post-China-deal gains. We think there is still a huge bearish appetite towards the greenback, and a cooler than expected 0.2% MoM core CPI provided an opportunity to re-enter strategic shorts. think.ing.com/articles/fx-da…

US asset markets and the dollar have made a good recovery from their April lows. Still, the scars of April’s events will likely be left on both the US economy and the $. think.ing.com/bundles/fx-tal…

As President Trump eases tariff policies, it's time for markets to focus on Bund supply pressures. Foreign investors could be key in managing the increased Bund issuance due to Germany's spending plans. think.ing.com/articles/forei…

By agreeing to a 90-day temporary reduction in the most severe tariffs on China, it looks like pragmatic policymaking has won out in Washington after all. Even so, the scars of April’s events will likely be left on both the US economy and the dollar 🔽 think.ing.com/bundles/fx-tal…

🇺🇸 May has been a good month for the dollar as US and Chinese policymakers have chosen to de-escalate – but we doubt its rally has legs. US growth and interest rates should continue to converge lower than in many other major economies: think.ing.com/articles/g10-f…

Events in Romania have dominated CEE FX markets over the last month and have questioned the central bank's control of the exchange rate. Elsewhere, Hungary's forint remains fragile, but the Czech koruna and Polish zloty should relatively outperform think.ing.com/articles/emea-…

Latam currencies have been performing quite well, in part because local leaders are seen as having protected the region from the tariff impact. We wouldn't chase USD/MXN too much lower, though, given that the USMCA is still up for renegotiation next year think.ing.com/articles/latam…

The Chinese renminbi is recovering on the back of the 90-day pause in tariffs. We doubt policymakers will want it to come too much under 7.10, however. And if the dollar is to fall further, Asian FX doesn't look best placed to take advantage: think.ing.com/articles/asia-…

The dollar has softened a little in quiet markets. US Treasuries have struggled to shake off April's underperformance, and a mixture of evidence on de-dollarisation and speculation over deals to devalue the dollar are all weighing. think.ing.com/articles/fx-da…

The UK economy roared back to life in the first quarter after stagnating through the second half of last year. Or did it? asks @smitheconomics. think.ing.com/snaps/why-the-…

Look at these industry numbers! It's the eurozone's Cinderella moment. Salagadoola mechicka boola, indeed. It won't last.... think.ing.com/snaps/eurozone…

Is gold losing its shine? 🪙 Prices have dropped more than 3% so far this week to their lowest in more than a month, as improved risk sentiment is reducing gold’s haven appeal. Our new forecasts for the year are here: think.ing.com/articles/gold-…

Trade uncertainty is undermining business confidence, delaying investment, and evoking memories of pandemic-related disruptions for supply chain partners. think.ing.com/articles/perma…