Chicago home prices facing ~17% gain in residential property taxes to offset declining CRE values and rising budget costs (per The Economist). While CHI had the highest YOY gain across CS 20-index, and has been priced as strongest for 2026, headwinds are blowing. DM to hedge.

Here's two ways to play the Redfin call on Miami being a "most likely to cool" market. A) Using CME Nov '26 Intercity Spreads (10city v MIA) and B) Using #HPHF Ratio Agreements. Both priced~ w/ MIA underperforming 0.5-1.75%. DM to hedge this or other metros. #homeprices

An FYI - Yesterday's 16 trades in the Feb '27 CME Case Shiller home price index futures were trades between my personal and business accounts. Done for risk-management/succession planning. 6 more coming today. #homeprices

Economists are reading through the CPI and accusing it of being rigged with bad data. Especially on housing inflation The bond market is also calling this report garbage. The 2 year yield has ripped higher as analysts dug into the data. This CPI report appears to be RIGGED

OK housing bears, @Zillow monthly 1-year forecast of top 100 metros shows upward MOM revisions and almost all metros show positive YOY forecasts. DM me to express a negative view. #homeprices #realestate

While home prices are, income inequality is also an important feature.

I'm back from a 4-week SE Asia tour and am looking to get trading in the CME Case Shiller futures re-started. Lots to digest but here's the 10-city index levels to begin. #homeprices #realestate

Here's my forecasts for the Case Shiller indices (to be updated on Tues Jan 27). Note that I've added forecasts for Feb and quotes on the CME CS futures (which will settle on the indices released Feb 24). DM if you disagree/want to trade. #homeprices #realestate CME Group

The CME Group Feb '26 (G26) Case Shiller home price index futures were mixed after this morning's update. LAV, SDG much higher (for one month to expiration) while BOS, SFR fell. I'm still tweaking quotes (w/help from 2 others - thanks). #homeprices #realestate

For survey participants in the upcoming quarterly Pulsenomics forecasts of Fannie Mae home price indices, here's the CME Case Shiller futures prices for Feb '27. Note that CS and FN have been VERY highly correlated. The CME markets are quoted ~+3.5% YOY. Anyone thinking that

Update: Zillow dropped their 1-year HPA forecasts slightly (except Boise?). Most metros projected to have small gains. #homeprices #realestate #HPHF

Here's my #HPHF forecasts for the Case Shiller indices to be released on Feb 24th. Note that this month is a CME Group futures expiration with contracts settling on the posted numbers. As such, the futures prices "should" reflect consensus sentiment. #homeprices #realestate