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Excited to share something I was working on for a while now: the Before AGI podcast! There is a lot of talking about AGI. But what’s less explored is an equally important question: What happens before AGI arrives? And what should we be doing to prepare? First episode with

Longer time horizons are actually much noisier than short time horizons, volatility scales by sqrt(T). So it’s actually much easier to make shorter term predictions. Intuitively, the shorter your prediction horizon the less time there is for unpredictable events.

Have any of the time series researchers considered just getting more data?

There’s going to be too many trading firms at ICML. That said, if you’re at all interested in ML+finance you should stop by the HRT booth and chat with them. They’re probably the best in the world at applying deep learning to finance. Probably should also talk to XTX and Citadel.

William Shockley had an IQ of 129. His mother had him tested, twice. In addition to the transistor, the man literally invented much of the early work in OR to kill people more effectively in WWII. His input would influence the US to drop the atomic bomb, literally ending a war.

This is true but the reason is a little subtle. The *definition* of volume (ie the units) is changing in each dimension. To make it unit-less, div by vol_d(unit d-cube) = 1 for all d. Then what you’re really saying vol_d(d-sphere) / vol_d(d-cube) -> 0, which is more believable.

Light was dumb actually

“Peter Chen, Pieter Abbeel, Rocky Duan, and other members of our research and engineering teams will also join Amazon” Tech gutting AI startups by acquiring their famous leadership and leaving the husk to remaining employees seems common these days. covariant.ai/resources/intr…

Witch Hat Atelier by 白浜鴎🏳️‍🌈とんがり帽子アニメ化 is going to be one of the best anime adaptations of next year, and Gigguk does a good job explaining why it's so magical. youtube.com/watch?v=cNbxe1…

High Frequency Trading (HFT) is Good Actually. cremieux.xyz/p/high-frequen…

We're releasing a preview of OpenAI o1—a new series of AI models designed to spend more time thinking before they respond. These models can reason through complex tasks and solve harder problems than previous models in science, coding, and math. openai.com/index/introduc…

I’ll never understand why people do this