The Long View (@hayekandkeynes) 's Twitter Profile
The Long View

@hayekandkeynes

Institutional Investor. Named a top finance account by BI. Featured on WSJ, FT, Bloomberg. News Junkie. Macroeconomics, investing, markets & life.

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calendar_today24-12-2014 02:01:18

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I’d given this near zero odds a month ago but they keep ticking higher despite no real benefit to the administration… Trump seems to have a vendetta and has taken the pre-election cuts personally. My base case is that I still think he’s trying to simply sully his reputation…

I’d given this near zero odds a month ago but they keep ticking higher despite no real benefit to the administration… Trump seems to have a vendetta and has taken the pre-election cuts personally. My base case is that I still think he’s trying to simply sully his reputation…
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People don’t realize that buying puts when no one is selling leads to more buying pressure as puts trend towards expiration…. It’s called charm (how delta changes over time for a given option)

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One thing is clear from recent Fed public comments.... There is zero consensus about the appropriate path forward. Sept is anything but a sure thing. Some don't even agree on the basic state of the economy.