JUST IN: Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market platform, won its federal suit against the CFTC over a plan to offer contracts on which party will control each house of Congress after the November election. m/arc 🧭 reports trib.al/6OJGhyj

Some info on what was behind today's big Polymarket move against Trump

If Polymarket could find a way to serve US customers (i) legally and (ii) in US dollars it would be impossible to compete with.

Some terminology. Polymarket posts "prices" not "odds". Trump 51.6c is not odds, it's the price of a contract. This price corresponds to a "break even probability": to break even you need to win at least 51.6% of the time. The odds are 1.0 / price. In the above case, 1.0 /

"Boring makes money" Useful nuggets by Ed Feng Ed Feng

When are the markets going live Kalshi ?

The courts have spoken. The CFTC needs to stand down and accept the fact that election markets are legal and here to stay. Rostin Behnam stop wasting taxpayer resources by trying to appeal last week’s court decision.

The Harris drift in late July and August was just severe overreaction to noise, which is exactly the kind of thing models are supposed to guard against. Now Trump 64.4% a few ticks too high. Overreacting to noise again, but in the opposite direction.

New Jersey is where Bet Bash started, and where it belongs!

A much simpler and more useful tool be a chatbot that helps you find the elusive Withdraw button.

Any comment from Better Markets

Newsflash to the shills at Better Markets: Billions of dollars will be bet on the election regardless of this ruling.

I propose a Constitutional Amendment that outlaws sportsbooks from banning winners.

Neither argument is sympathetic. We're talking about who is better at betting money on grown men throwing a ball around. Maybe ask: why are there bad lines to exploit in the first place? A license to operate is not a license to print money.

Gaming Regulators that allow sportsbook operators to promote business from losing / problem gamblers and deny business from winning / responsible bettors is like Liquor Control allowing bars to only serve drunks and alcoholics, while denying service from casual customers.

If you’ve been limited by a sportsbook, reach out to your state regulator and let them know! (Link below) Just found out Pennsylvania, Arkansas, and Wyoming have never received a complaint. bettorsvoice.com/when-you-need-…

P-value < 10e-6

Yet more nonsense from Andrew Gelman et al. about betting markets posing a "threat to democracy". Gelman fundamentally doesn't understand markets, but that shouldn't stop him from advancing unsupported conspiracy theories. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/09/06/ver…