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It can be hard to understand where the economy is at right now. I’ll be on @ Morning_Joe in a few to explain what the data tells us about the latest economic trends.

It’s widely expected that Trump’s trade war will raise prices, but we haven’t seen much of an effect in the data yet. My @ Morning_Joe Chart

The World Bank nearly halved its forecast for US GDP growth in 2025, while Europe saw a smaller slowdown and China may see no effect at all. My @ Morning_Joe Chart

While markets have been relieved by recent economic data readings, we can’t ignore that the labor market has been sluggish for quite some time now. My @ Morning_Joe Chart

The Fed lifted its unemployment rate projects, including long-run ones.

Despite little action in the data so far, the Fed projects higher inflation on the horizon for 2025.

New: The Social Security and Medicare trust funds are now going to run out of money sooner than projected just a year ago. Meanwhile, the new tax bill in front of Congress will just add more deficit and debt. This problem needs to be addressed now.

Climate change poses a massive threat to our food supply. As one expert puts it, "If the climate warms by 3 degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast"

Armed conflict with Iran stands to contract global oil supply and increase prices. Trump’s not happy about that, because it’s reversing the prices drops caused by the contractionary trade policy of his first 5 months in office.

Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would be a major problem for China – 38% of oil traveling through the strait goes to China, while only 3% comes to the US.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index declined in June despite dropping inflation expectations.

3 years since the overturn of Roe v Wade, the gender gap on abortion opinion is larger than ever.

83% of Americans, including a majority of Republicans, think the US should be a world leader in developing clean energy — it’s too bad the GOP bill intentionally rolls back progress on that front.

Get my @ Morning_Joe charts and my @ NYTimes OpEds & posts by signing up at StevenRattner.com Bluesky: @ steverattner.bsky.social Threads: stevenrattner

Comparing the White House analysis of OBBBA to multiple private forecasters shows how ridiculous Trump’s claims for the legislation are.