One of Wall Street's most well-known bears says the Fed is "almost guaranteed to be wrong" about the US avoiding a recession trib.al/D9tK0gC

ValueFounder Palisades Gold Radio I expect gold to do well if equities decline - especially if equities decline due to high inflation or an increase in defaults (by governments or corporations). For example, gold did extremely well in the 1970s when equities declined due to high inflation.

In 2000, mortgage rates were 7.5% and home prices were near their long-term trendline. In 2023, mortgage rates are again 7.5% but home prices are ~65% above their trendline. Watch out below

Grantham: an equity bull market has never started from valuations as high as current US equity valuations afr.com/markets/equity…

At GRANT'S fall investment conference, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach shares his views and the implications of the end of a 40-year decline in interest rates. doubleline.com/markets-insigh…

Hirschmann Capital noted in 2020 that over the past 120 yrs, 98% of countries where sovereign debt/GDP hit 130% defaulted on their debt, usually via sustained high inflation. US hit 130% in 2020. 98% shots don't come around often in this biz. The 1 exception was Japan (so far)

Luke Gromen Mike Kimelman 🏴‍☠️⚔️ Prior to the 1965-82 US Great Inflation, the USD was also the reserve currency. Yet that didn’t prevent a crisis (USG debt yields reached 16% in 1981) and so it seems unlikely to prevent the next one.

Great to see our friend Brian Hirschmann, CFA being cited for his research on this topic! Check out our last chat here: youtube.com/watch?v=nSfIYS…

My year-end '23 letter discusses why a US recession seems likely and should trigger a US government debt crisis, driving up #gold prices hcapital.llc/public-letters

In this 1984 article Warren Buffett warned that a 38% US government debt to GDP ratio was dangerous. Today that ratio could soon be 150% (see my latest letter) and thus an unprecedented inflation crisis is looming: kingswell.io/p/warren-buffe…

Robert Sterling Check this out from Brian Hirschmann, CFA. "Since 1800, 51 out of 52 countries with gross government debt greater than 130% have defaulted, either through restructuring, devaluation, high inflation or outright default."

Rate hikes of 400bp or less popped the 1929🇺🇸, 1989🇯🇵, 2000🇺🇸 & 2006🇺🇸 bubbles. Thus it won't be a surprise if the recent 525bp Fed hike ultimately pops the triple-bubble in 🌎bonds, 🇺🇸equities & 🇺🇸homes. E.g. home affordability is at the same level that popped the 2006 bubble:

In this '03 article, Buffett warned that high US borrowing from foreigners would eventually cause the US gov. to default through inflation. Since then, US foreign borrowing has skyrocketed & thus this is another reason a mega inflation crisis is looming: berkshirehathaway.com/letters/growin…

As of 8/31, my Fund was up 67% year-to-date vs. 17% for the MSCI World. As discussed in the EisnerAmper podcast at the link below, the Fund's returns should be FAR higher when the US super-bubble bursts. See return details & disclaimer (inc. risks): hcapital.llc/media

It was great to speak with EisnerAmper about the once-in-a-generation opportunity in gold mining equities. For disclaimer & return details, see: hcapital.llc/media

Be fearful when others are greedy: with US equities extremely overvalued, Buffett's cash allocation skyrockets

My fund has increased 98% since 12/31/23. Plus it has outperformed the MSCI since 2014 despite its ultra-bearish strategy. Below I discuss why the bubble should burst soon and why gold developers are an opportunity. See disclaimer, risks & return details: hcapital.llc/public-letters

Bellissimo! I'm officially a triple-citizen 🇮🇹🇺🇸🇩🇪 #NATO

As of 4/4, my fund was up 29% YTD vs -13% for the SPX. Despite the fund's bearish strategy, it has outperformed the SPX since 2014. In my 3/6 podcast below, I discuss why a financial crisis should be ideal for the fund. See disclaimer, risks & return dets: hcapital.llc/media

In H1, my fund appreciated 68% v. 6% for the S&P 500. Despite the fund's ultra-bearish strategy, it has outperformed US & global equities since inception. In my letter, I discuss misconceptions about gold. Letter (w/ disclaimer, risks & return details): hcapital.llc/public-letters