Monthly retail prices for June released yesterday from StatsCan. Too many products still experiencing high rising prices since the beginning of the year, but relief in some fresh produce. Beef cuts still on a tear, mirroring dynamics in fed/feeder futures since Jan. #CdnFood

July #CPI - headline inflation at 3.3%. One measure of core inflation - all-items excluding food and energy - at 3.4%. But, strip out mortgage interest cost (more a function of the BoC's policy than a reflection of aggregate demand) and it's below 2.0% again this month. #CdnEcon

Looking at job vacancy rates in parts of food supply chain. Rates been declining the last 3-4 quarters, a result of vacant positions being filled, firms no longer looking to hire as they were before, or both. #CdnFoodBiz #CdnEcon

Stats Can out with Dec. manufacturing sales last week. Sales numbers are nominal, meaning they do not account for the impact of inflation. If we strip out the impact of inflation, we can get a proxy for volume growth. Wineries with a particularly difficult 2023.

Grocery food inflation trending in right direction. Today's CPI report shows 6.9% increase Y/Y, lowest since January 2022. The 6 month annualized rate is 2.3%, indicating a better trend in the last few months.

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My latest blog looks at how US milk prices are impacting #CdnDairy blended prices. Revenue on a per unit basis ($/hl) is down, but total production is up – and should stay elevated, given upcoming incentive days. #CdnAg

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Updated dairy statistics out today showing stocks of butter as of June 2023 up slightly (~ 2,000 t) compared to June 2022.

Aligns with bf production up YTD in 2023, as I wrote about in our updated #CdnDairy outlook yesterday: fcc-fac.ca/en/knowledge/e…

Manu. sales data for first half of '23 is in, and its mostly positive news. Overall sales up 8.3% Y/Y. Winery sales down significantly - but that's on the back of very strong sales in '21 and '22.

Our mid-year F&B blog will be out Sept. 19 with more detail.

FCC Food and Beverage

Sugar and cocoa prices are bonkers right now. Global production issues the reason why. Sugar at highs last seen in 2011; for cocoa, highest in 46 years. The strike at a BC sugar refinery complicating matters. Bakeries and consumers will be feeling it this holiday season.

We've been noting for a few months now how prices at the manufacturing level have been easing, and it takes 6-12 months for that to flow thru to the retail level. This seems to be slowly occurring. #CdnEcon #CPI

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Thank you to everyone who attended our AGM tonight and special thanks to our board of directors and outgoing Chair Graeme Crosbie who has handed over the reins to new Chair Emma Warren. Welcome also to new Vice-Chair Dave Crew and new board members Joe Routledge and Karen

Somerset Chamber of Commerce continues to provide a strong link between local businesses and key policymakers, investors and economic leaders, both across the county and further afield. Speaking at the Chamber's AGM, Graeme Crosbie, the outgoing Chair of the Chamber’s board of

Graeme Crosbie is a Senior Economist at Farm Credit Canada. He will be providing the FCC Plenary, 2024 Global Farming Outlook at the Ag Connections Conference Nov. 22.

#AgConnections #CypressCounty

Congratulations JP! A great economist and great mentor as well.

#BankofCanada holds its overnight rate at 5.00%. Unsurprising given last Friday’s GDP release which showed the economy contracted -0.2% in Q2. Governing Council says it will keep an eye on “underlying inflationary pressures” as key moving forward. #cdnecon bankofcanada.ca/2023/09/fad-pr…

My latest quarterly update on the #Cdndairy industry. Margins will be tight again in 2023, some fall incentive days for the P5 have been revoked, and an increase in the farmgate price in February seems unlikely given recent statement from the DFC. #CdnAg

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With harvest wrapping up in the west and underway in the east, our team takes a look at what to expect for the rest of the 23-24 marketing year:

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If you haven't done so already, register for tomorrow's 2024 Outlook event featuring J.P. Gervais and the rest of our economic leadership group. They've got all the bases covered, from macro, primary production, and food & beverage production.:

eventbrite.ca/e/2024-fcc-eco….

As expected, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 5.00% today.

But where do they go from here? And where are long-term yields and borrowing costs headed?

We break it all down in our latest macroeconomic snapshot, out today:

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#CndEcon