This week, U.S. large-cap investors are breathing a collective sigh of relief as the S&P 500 has recovered its post-Liberation Day losses and now sits nearly flat for the year. Driving this rebound is a 90-day détente in the U.S.-China trade war, which... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

All eyes are on Washington this month as Treasury yields continue to climb. Moody’s recent downgrade of US debt to Aa1 has added pressure across the curve, and remarks from Treasury Secretary Bessent failed to calm markets. Mounting budget deficits and.... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

The typical term of a private asset investment drawdown fund is ten years, meaning the fund manager should exit all deals return capital to investors by the tenth year. However, many funds are nearing the end of their term in an environment with.... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

Following Nvidia’s earnings release last week, the market now has a fuller picture of key components from the Q1 2025 earnings season. One familiar theme stands out: large technology and media companies once again carried much of the S&P 500’s weight.... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

May’s employment data presented two conflicting views of the labor market. The payroll survey—based on a sample of U.S. businesses—showed a gain of 139,000 jobs. In contrast, the household survey—drawn from a sample of U.S. households—reported a decline... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

This week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) will almost certainly result in no change to the target interest rate. While expected, the decision to hold rates steady will still raise questions among some market watchers.... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

The Federal Reserve has been patiently watching and waiting for tariff impacts to show up in inflation data. However, inflation has been surprisingly soft over the past few months. Does that mean tariffs are not affecting inflation? Not quite. goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

In the first half of 2025, the S&P 500 gained just over 6%, but beneath that headline growth was significant volatility. Stocks fluctuated nearly 20%, experiencing sharp declines during the Liberation Day selloff in April, only to rally back to new.... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

The S&P 500 closed at another all-time high last week, lifted by a stronger-than-expected June payrolls report that showed the U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also declined by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%, offering an additional.... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

Lower bars are easier to hurdle—a truism in both track and field and business. That appears to be the setup for second-quarter earnings season, which officially began last week with reports from the U.S.’s largest banks.... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

Markets face what one strategist has called a “moment of truth”—a dramatic phrase, to be sure, but fitting given where markets stand and what lies ahead. The S&P 500 has recently set a series of all-time highs... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

Among inflation reports, the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) tends to receive less attention than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While CPI reflects changes in consumer-level prices, the PPI tracks price movements at the producer level.... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

During his Jackson Hole speech last Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates on September 17th. Powell noted that the balance of risks—between stable prices and stable employment—has shifted.... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

Over the past 10 years, private credit assets under management have grown from about $500 billion to nearly $2 trillion. The rapid rise of the asset class has garnered questions on how it compares to publicly traded credit, particularly in terms of.... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

Markets are in a strange place: another week, another series of all-time highs in the stock market. Another week, and further evidence—this time a collective downward revision of 900,000 in monthly jobs created through March 2025—of a weak job market. goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

Small-cap stocks, long among the most unloved parts of the U.S. market, have finally shown signs of life. Since bottoming on April 8, the widely followed Russell 2000 has rallied 40% and just surpassed its prior all-time high from 2021. goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

In January, we framed the year ahead with the theme of “paranoid optimism.” Nine months later, it still fits: optimism fueled by growth, paranoia by policy shifts and data surprises. The optimism case was built on a sturdy job market, tax and.... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

It is perhaps inevitable that a technology as revolutionary as AI would give rise to speculative excess. History shows that investors often overreact to breakthroughs in the short term—a tendency reflected in today’s share prices and the extraordinary... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

The hot narrative for the first half of 2025 was “The End of American Exceptionalism.” At the time, we noted that while dramatic, the narrative was premature.... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…

The U.S. Q3 earnings season has begun on a constructive note, easing the proverbial wall of worry that had formed around tariffs, geopolitics, and inflation. Results reported so far indicate that earnings growth is largely keeping pace with last quarter... goelzerinc.com/insights_post/…