Here are the US reciprocal tariffs against all the territories mentioned in Enya’s Orinoco Flow

Among the many things that are wrong with this, one is that even if the US was in global trade balance, it would still have trade surpluses and deficits with various countries

Indeed, it says investors are very worried about the US economy and the profitability of investing in the US.

“More generally, investors will be less interested in holding investments in the US if they believe the Fed will not be independent in the future because that means the US economy will not perform as well in the future as in the past,” Joseph Gagnon says. aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/22…

Really nice summary. I put most weight on scaring off foreign investors and the growing realization that dollar overvaluation and overweight in global portfolios is not sustainable.

ICYMI. The effect of a very long lag on inflation (5-20 years) swamps all other variables besides the short lag of 1-4 years. Lived experiences do matter, even decades later.

The U.S. and China reached a new trade deal. What does it mean? Glad to be back on Marketplace discussing that the China trade war temporary de-escalation is better than a de facto embargo, still harmful, and serves no purpose with Kai Ryssdal marketplace.org/story/2025/05/…

.Adam Posen speaks today at Senator Ben Ray Luján & Senator Cortez Masto's spotlight forum on costs of Trump's tariffs. Read the PIIE research on how the tariffs could cost families $2,600 per year: piie.com/research/piie-… Tune in on Senator Luján's profile to watch live at 1:30 PM ET 👇

My colleague Asher Rose just posted a nice graph showing the Fed’s recent losses and projected return to profits in historical context. QE makes Fed profit higher but more variable. piie.com/research/piie-…

Fed projected to turn profitable again after three years of losses piie.com/research/piie-…

This x100 Joseph Gagnon Peterson Institute

My latest with Tam Bayoumi on the real causes of the US trade deficit (not foreign tariffs or barriers) and why the deficit is not sustainable. piie.com/publications/w…