Greg (@gs_capsf) 's Twitter Profile
Greg

@gs_capsf

Equity Analyst + Macro Trader, hobby economist & humble market student.

ID: 2699557074

linkhttps://marginofsafetyblog.substack.com calendar_today02-08-2014 01:27:14

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I pitched $MSFT to a hedge fund manager in 2017 as part of a job interview. I was told by this guy there’s no alpha in large cap/widely followed stocks because markets are too efficient. MSFT 3x the return of the S&P500. Just remember to always bet on yourself.

I pitched $MSFT to a hedge fund manager in 2017 as part of a job interview. I was told by this guy there’s no alpha in large cap/widely followed stocks because markets are too efficient. MSFT 3x the return of the S&P500. Just remember to always bet on yourself.
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Employment change without the birth/death adjustment would have been -184k in July. We’ve had a big cluster of the adjustments producing the positive NFP numbers. Meanwhile employment revisions continue to skew heavily negative at over -400k on a 12 month rolling basis, something

Employment change without the birth/death adjustment would have been -184k in July. We’ve had a big cluster of the adjustments producing the positive NFP numbers. Meanwhile employment revisions continue to skew heavily negative at over -400k on a 12 month rolling basis, something
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Even more concerning than the employment numbers is that construction spending continues to decline and is way above trend. This is only the 3rd time in 35 years there’s been a sustained downturn with negative growth. Economy is softening. #Economy #housing

Even more concerning than the employment numbers is that construction spending continues to decline and is way above trend. This is only the 3rd time in 35 years there’s been a sustained downturn with negative growth. Economy is softening. #Economy #housing
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The fed already had jobs data on Wednesday and held rates steady, meaning they will be late to heading off a downturn per usual.

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When do people figure out $NVO is a quantum computing play trading at 11x NTM P/E podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tec…

When do people figure out $NVO is a quantum computing play trading at 11x NTM P/E

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tec…
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Insanity for a shrinking company that has lagged the S&P500 for 4 years. The award is multiples larger than $TSLA annual operating income.

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I’m convinced sell side analysts should have to put considerable personal capital into their recommendations. Just casually throwing a PT out there at 90x sales. $PLTR

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OAI growth really is next level. Let’s just get to the IPO already. Tokens consumed up >6x & 700M users globally. Pretty incredible. $OAI

OAI growth really is next level. Let’s just get to the IPO already. Tokens consumed up >6x & 700M users globally. Pretty incredible. $OAI
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This is not bullish for $AAPL which depends on low cost foreign manufacturing. This is capital intensity increasing which will ultimately hit ROIC.

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I wouldn’t be surprised if xAI is just using distillation on OAI & Anthropic models like DeepSeek did, but has enough compute to better optimize the model (make it slightly better).

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Basically telling us the U.S. Federal Government is becoming insolvent. #GOLD $GLD The Fed - Official Reserve Revaluations: The International Experience federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…