Bruno ◢ ◤ Likely my final tweet regarding crypto

As I always say, if you have long term conviction in BTC and ETH, you will outperform just holding and not trading

They're only going to keep printing more money; you're unlikely to time every local move

ETH at 10k is one day programmed

Eid-ul-Fitr Mubarak

Wishing you all peace, happiness, harmony, good health and prosperity on the occasion of Eid

AI startup idea for someone

Create something that identifies probabilistic model for which new uniswap meme coins will be rugs

With a large enough data set of prior rugs, likely to be some identifying variables

A16z writes you large check in 2025 for RUG.AI

拿

利润

ancient chinese proverb

engin When 95% of traders are anticipating a sell the news event, it's almost always going to buy what I've referred to in the past as, 'inverse sell the news'

Lot of people sidelined with fear of an event are forced to fomo back in

Sell the news happens when it's unexepected

Poll to gauge sentiment

Will Ethereum's latest upgrade, dubbed Shanghai, result in

RIP Bittrex Global
First exchange I traded heavily on

Fond memories of losing money on DragonChain
Never got hacked or misappropriated user funds, but was in the wrong jurisdiction

Ramadan Mubarak to all the Muslim brothers and sisters in the world

Trump's arrest and martyrdom makes it more, not less, likely he is the victor

Maintain > 90% odds he is the Republican nominee

Don't get too high; the entire banking system is not going to collapse overnight, leading to hyperbitcoinization + 1 million $ BTC

Don't get too low; when we get a correction, this wasn't a scam pump engineered by CZ for exit liq, going back to 0

Stay even

Study 2019 and 2020

As the bottom of the last cycle was marked by forced selling from hedge funds

Bottom of next cycle could be marked by capitulation from developing nations

Nayib Bukele + El Salvador as a test run; next cycle, we see small countries overleveraging on BTC near the top

Years away

US Hyperinflation Before 2050?

Forecasters on metaculus are assigning it 5%

And this gives a 27 year time interval, much longer than a few months

I went much higher than 5%, but still very unlikely [(CPI U) has an annual growth rate of at least 100%]

metaculus.com/questions/6604…

He who chases two rabbits catches neither

It's been repeated on CT for years, and is some of the most obvious advice

But for those of you who haven't digested it; if you don't have much cash and looking to get capitalized

There's no greater opportunity in this world than farming airdrops; can really change your life

The old paradigm of fractional reserve banking will increasingly lose sustainability in the social media era

Information flows quicker, causing a reflexive spiral of quicker bank runs that can easily be triggered

Slowly, but surely, people will demand an alternative; a new path

sentiment poll

what % of your net worth is allocated to crypto, not including stables

and in replies, which tokens are you in at what exposure level?

History is on our side; we trust code over governments

Natural question; if not USDC, then what?
I've long warned to not trust any stablecoins [including USDT]

If you're in stables, sell it for fiat and send it to a bank that is too big to fail [JP Morgan, BoA, Wells Fargo tier] and backed by armies

If you're in BTC, cold storage

If you bought the crash on USDC, take profit here at 97c; no point being greedy for another 3%

The past few years should have taught a lesson to not trust official statements or promises

Not trying to cause panic or alarm, but you're better safe than sorry

Some more context

Although GOP wouldn't advocate for crypto as part of the campaign, Republican control would be indirectly bullish

1-More libertarian leaning/free market absolutists appointed to regulatory bodies such as SEC [compare Jay Clayton to Gensler

2-More dovish Fed