WTI crude oil is down for 8 consecutive weeks (longest streak since 2015) and it hardly ever comes up in market/eco conversations.

Something for everyone. Good news: Based on forecasts Fed believes that any upward pressure to inflation won't last beyond this year. Bad news: They've downgraded the outlook for growth and haven't responded by projecting additional cuts.

Jonathan Ferro “apparently stagflation is bullish” line of the day

Charge for hand luggage, do the checking for free. It'll make the whole boarding process so much easier.

Treasury Secretary Bessent tells annmarie hordern the equity market selloff is quote “A Mag7 problem not a MAGA problem”

One of those weekends… See you Sunday Bloomberg TV

Huge difference between a shock to the cycle vs a shock to the system. Is this the start of negotiations or are these the new rules of the game? The uncertainty is leading to an immediate repricing of the cycle. It will take much longer to fully internalize a shock to the

Still all in the hands of one man. But based on these comments the off-ramp is being pieced together if he eventually wants to take it. The administration doubling down on China and leaving the door open for negotiation with everyone else.

Off-ramp it is…

Ditto!!

UnitedHealth is 9% of the index Hardly anybody 'owns' the dow Why give a weather report for a town nobody lives in?

Whenever I hear about “The Dow” , I think about this. It’s like giving a tornado warning to an uninhabited area. Sounds awful yet nobody is there. $UNH is down 20% right now.

It takes seconds to price in a shock to the cycle. It takes much longer to internalise potential shocks to the system. Feels like Wall St is breaking away from myopic chats about weather and pondering an unfamiliar investment solar system. This aint your average growth scare.

On trade talks with China, Stephen Miran tells Jonathan Ferro and me—“I would be surprised if tariff rates are where they are now, you know, within a few weeks from now.”

This game 🤯 #InterBarca

“I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant" On the edge of Greenspan

Is US market exceptionalism dead? Nope. When the whole world is on the menu. CEOs are still choosing America. And when they do… Investors nod in approval and the stock rallies.

Good morning, good morning POTUS. Only place to be on jobs day is with Jonathan Ferro BSurveillance.

Tomorrow 8am Bloomberg TV “I believe it makes sense to cut the FOMC’s policy rate by 25 basis points two weeks from now” Governor Waller

Ford: A $40 billion company complaining about tariffs. versus Microsoft: A $4 trillion company absolutely crushing estimates. As Rick Rieder said this week “Markets are not ignoring risk; they are pricing a system built to absorb it”