Douglas Orr, CFA (@equitorr) 's Twitter Profile
Douglas Orr, CFA

@equitorr

Founder CEO Endeavour Equity Strategy
Macro /Research/ Technicals ex Aust Treasury, ex Strategist ABN-AMRO. Ski, Ocean Swimming & Surf. Sydney Swans

ID: 2371141950

calendar_today04-03-2014 00:45:05

3,3K Tweet

6,6K Followers

439 Following

Douglas Orr, CFA (@equitorr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

With $NVDA result imminent... Market is focusing on Funding Pressures for RECORD CAPEX in TECH Projections for MAG-7 are for CAPEX to double in coming years to around $700bn Chart: CAPEX Vs CASH FLOW & SALES👀🔥⏬ Are much hotter 🔥than over DOT.COM bubble

With $NVDA result imminent...

Market is focusing on Funding Pressures for 
RECORD CAPEX in TECH

Projections for MAG-7 are for CAPEX to double in coming years to around $700bn

Chart:  CAPEX Vs CASH FLOW & SALES👀🔥⏬

Are much hotter 🔥than over DOT.COM bubble
Douglas Orr, CFA (@equitorr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Hot Aust CPI Inflation - As Housing & tight labour markets pose Hawkish Challenge to overly dovish RBA. “No cuts” or Hikes Reality vs RBA “1-2 cuts” narrative. · Trimmed mean measure well above expectation at 3.3% · Ex Volatile 4.0% y/y vs 3.7% prev Only time Inflation

Hot Aust CPI Inflation - 
As Housing & tight labour markets pose Hawkish Challenge to overly dovish RBA.

“No cuts” or Hikes Reality vs RBA “1-2 cuts” narrative.

·   Trimmed mean measure well above expectation at 3.3%
·   Ex Volatile 4.0% y/y vs 3.7% prev

Only time Inflation
Douglas Orr, CFA (@equitorr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Great Chart Tim Lawless - Australian Investor Lending Surge/ Bubble Investor Lending has "gone vertical" due to strong rents, RBA "promises" of Rate Cuts & low lending standards (PC & circumvention of LVR & KYC rules) NB how the 2014 & 2017 surges of Investor Lending co-inciced/

Great Chart <a href="/timlawless/">Tim Lawless</a> - Australian Investor Lending Surge/ Bubble
Investor Lending has "gone vertical" due to strong rents, RBA "promises" of Rate Cuts &amp; low lending standards (PC &amp; circumvention of LVR &amp; KYC rules)

NB how the 2014 &amp; 2017 surges of Investor Lending co-inciced/
Douglas Orr, CFA (@equitorr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Important points... Where is the poverty line today with Housing "Impossibly unafordable" in Australia + 20% + expensive in US + other countries After 15 years of overly low rates +/or money printing?

Important points...
Where is the poverty line today with Housing "Impossibly unafordable" in Australia + 20% + expensive in US + other countries

After 15 years of overly low rates +/or money printing?
Douglas Orr, CFA (@equitorr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Claims by Govt supermarkets are gouging isn't supported by the data - margins are flat for decades The problem is cost inflation *Electricity * Rent *Wages Are surging due to Govt policies *Renewables * Migration surge Charmers is the problem not the remedy!

Douglas Orr, CFA (@equitorr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Dishonest propaganda! Claims by Govt supermarkets are gouging isn't supported by the data - margins are flat for decades The problem is cost inflation *Electricity * Rent *Wages Are surging due to Govt policies *Renewables * Migration Albanese is the *problem * not the

Douglas Orr, CFA (@equitorr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Shocking scenes in Bondi Australia... as Jewish Hanakkuh beach service is attacked by 2x gunman This footage shows a member of the public disarming one of the gunmen. Hero saves multiple lives

Douglas Orr, CFA (@equitorr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Carry Trade back under pressure as 10yr JGB yld & hits near 30 yr high. Pain for Tech likely Carry Trade Reversal is again looking menacing - Japan JGBs yields hitting near 30 year highs. Bond holders prepare for expansionary fiscal policy. PM Takaichi planning to cut sales tax

Carry Trade back under pressure as 10yr JGB yld &amp; hits near 30 yr high. Pain for Tech likely

Carry Trade Reversal is again looking menacing - Japan JGBs yields hitting near 30 year highs.

Bond holders prepare for expansionary fiscal policy. PM Takaichi planning to cut sales tax
Douglas Orr, CFA (@equitorr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

RBA likely doubly Hawkish today: Expect: +25bps of hike with CPI & Rate outlook to be revised up materially due to structural inflation pressure at 3.5%. We expect 3X rate hikes in ’26. to take 3.6% Cash Rate to 4.35%. We see the “maths” as follows: RBA likely increases CPI

RBA likely doubly Hawkish today: 

Expect:  +25bps of hike with CPI &amp; Rate outlook to be revised up materially due to structural inflation pressure at 3.5%. We expect 3X rate hikes in ’26. to take 3.6% Cash Rate to 4.35%.

We see the “maths” as follows: RBA likely increases CPI
Douglas Orr, CFA (@equitorr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Mmm..RBA backtracks with +25bp hike...due to *excess demand* read *negligent government overstimulus* Govt Policy is: zero productivity, surge Govt spending, surge immigration HTF could this not end in 3.5% structural inflation? If you look closely they have a total of