It may be too much to take in all at once, but h/t to leon simons for pointing me to NOAA ERSST V5 SST monthly data beginning 1854, current through March, 2024.

I included the 50 year average for 1900-1949 for good measure.

This really is the beginning of the end of everything.

That's right. Sea surface temperatures were fully 9.1 standard deviations above the 1940-1989 baseline in August, 2023.

Last month, they were 'only' 7.7σ.

If your Internet stops working today because of the geomagnetic storms, please let us know by posting the outage to Twitter.

(Someone had to make this joke, might as well be me.)

Here are the the daily warming stripes for the Tropics, 1940-present, colored by the difference from the 1940-1989 (50 year) average for that day.

Notice any patterns?

On the precipice of doom for so many different reasons. Here is yet another.

Your 'moment of doom' for May 10, 2024 ~ Optimism???

'constant exposure to negative news on social media may also erode optimism and increase feelings of hopelessness...this could prevent us from organizing or taking collective action on climate change.'
phys.org/news/2024-05-a…

You?

/ht Collapse Aphorisms

It's that awkward part of the collapse of global industrial civilization and the sixth great extinction when climate scientists start unblocking me.

'The fact we can't simulate these step-change increases and understand why it's happening is terrifying.' -- Prof. Hayley Fowler

'The impact of warming the ocean could lead to new classes of heatwaves we've never seen before.' -- Prof. Valerio Lucarini

bbc.com/future/article…

Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today ~ Worse than expected.

'To model complex climate systems, we need the grunt of supercomputers...While this can work well for large-scale climate modelling, it’s not suitable for directly simulating thunderstorms.'
theconversation.com/supercharged-t…

Your 'moment of doom' for May 9, 2024 ~ the thrill is gone.

'The step-change in ocean temperatures over last year is huge...The fact we can't simulate these step-change increases and understand why it's happening is terrifying.'
bbc.com/future/article…

I just updated the daily warming stripes through May 6th.

I'm thinking of adding magenta to the right of red in order to follow the latest CDC guidance on color-coding heat related f&%kery.

Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today ~ Thank you Damian Carrington!

“I expect a semi-dystopian future with substantial pain and suffering for the people of the global south...The world’s response to date is reprehensible – we live in an age of fools.”
theguardian.com/environment/ng…

Your 'moment of doom' for May 8, 2024 ~ Abandon all hope, ye who enter.

'Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative IPCC, foresee at least 2.5°C of global heating above preindustrial levels, while almost half anticipate at least 3°C.'
theguardian.com/environment/ar…

Breaking News!
Code UFB!!!

As of the latest data (May 1st), tropical surface temperatures are back up to 6 standard deviations above the 1940-1989 average (first 50 years of data).

Takes my breath away.

'Those were the days, my friend
We thought they'd never end
We'd sing and dance forever and a day
We'd live the life we choose
We'd fight and never lose
Those were the days, oh yes,
those were the days.'

climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-202…

Global sea surface temperatures yesterday were 5.44σ above the 1982-2011 mean.

If SSTs were normally distributed, this anomaly would occur by chance about once every 100,000 years.

No doubt about it, the f&%kery in the North Atlantic is not over yet.