John Bolton and I offer fundamentally different visions of what a GOP foreign policy should look like.

His brand of maximalism was damaging enough in the 2000s. Today it would be catastrophic.

Realism may well get us through the world crisis.

youtube.com/watch?v=3Ej7pU…

To be clear, direct intervention would be an incredibly bad idea. I am trying to warn against the slippery slope. We seem to be on it. 4/

The especially dangerous thing about the Wall Street Journal Opinion position here is there's no limiting principle against direct U.S. intervention into the Ukraine war. Their argument is the U.S. can't afford for Ukraine to fail, while arguing Russia is succeeding. 1/

wsj.com/articles/russi…

Don't take it from me. Scarcity is real.

From Senator Roger Wicker:

“The truth is that our naval fleet is too small and too old...We have a quantum leap that we need to make, and we need to do it soon.”

wicker.senate.gov/2024/5/senator…

Why is the U.S. deepening its military commitment to the Middle East when its behind against China and can't meet all the defense commitments it already has made?

President Biden administration is the epitome of the policy of writing checks our bodies can't cash.

nytimes.com/2024/05/17/us/…

Bingo🎯 from Doug Lute, Jordan Becker, and Andrew Webster:

“The time has come for European allies to carry a larger share of the burden of European defense.” 1/

warontherocks.com/2024/05/the-ti…

“Like in the early years in Vietnam, we are step by step moving toward the erosion of the boundaries that we have set for ourselves,” Mr. Colby said. “We’ve been in this for two and a half years. We’re in a war of attrition with Russia and we’re steadily escalating. Is that where

“Providing intelligence to [specifically target] the Russians [in Russia] would be a significant erosion of the guardrails the Biden administration has put in place to prevent the conflict from widening beyond the borders of Ukraine, he added.” 3/

“These Russian counterthreats are very concrete and relatively proportional,” said Mr. Colby, who was a Pentagon official during the Trump administration. “And that’s the thing that worries me.” 2/

My take about this very worrying trend:

“Elbridge Colby, a critic of the Biden administration’s policies on Ukraine, said the tensions between Britain and Russia over Mr. Cameron’s remarks showed the dangers of insufficiently considered escalation.” 1/

Here's where things stand, unfortunately:

“We have grown our combat capability in the Pacific,” said Adm. Paparo. “But our trajectory is still not a trajectory that matches our adversary, [who] are building more capability and warships than we are.” 5/

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

We must laser-focus our weapons and resources on Asia if we are to have a chance for this policy to succeed.

Getting involved in a big war in Europe or the Middle East would drastically undermine our already too weak position in Asia, and invite defeat and humiliation. 4/

The best outcome would be to avoid such a war through a combination of deterrence and persuading Beijing that peace is a better outcome than war: speaking softly and carrying a big stick. We must recognize that we *cannot* do that by pursuing primacy or walk and chew gum. 3/

America has never lost a major power war. This would be truly unprecedented. We can’t predict the precise consequences, but we can be confident the reputational and practical consequences for America would be devastating. 2/

Whichever candidate wins will be President in 2027.

No one knows what Beijing will do. But they are - indisputably - seriously preparing for war.

America is at great risk of losing a great power war for the first time, with enormous consequences. 1/

amp.scmp.com/news/china/art…

If - God forbid - war comes with China and we're ill-prepared, then future historians will struggle trying to understand how the most vulnerable countries in Asia and the most vocally aggressive U.S. hawks on China urged us to direct our scarce military resources toward Europe.

Štefan Auer Elbridge Colby I agree with you, Europe needs to do more!

Prof. Ronald Asch Elbridge Colby Until and unless EUropean nations change their priorities, there is little hope that they regain their ability to defend themselves. It obviously differs from country to country, but when I watch Germany continuing to deindustrialise itself, I am really worried. It’s myopic.

Here is a recent thread based on a Politico interview supporting my interpretation above

It’s way more clearly in Europe’s strategic interest, but this is still not reflected in Europe’s willingness to devote more resources to defence- their own and Ukraine’s. I think this is Elbridge Colby’s core argument: The US is overextending itself, EUrope needs to do more