Soybean stocks at ports hit a new record—a mix of the holiday effect and strong shipments in Brz. This isn’t a trade-war story; it’s about Brz shipping capacity—the new normal

Rain remains very concentrated in the North of MT and Parana. Lack of rain in the South and West of MT. Cotton producers are thinking: is it better to plant beans and lose the ideal window for cotton, or skip beans and plant cotton earlier? More producers reporting lower cotton

The best indicator of port-fee risk? DCE soymeal is saying "it’s fading away". China granted exemptions for Made-in-China vessels, regardless the charterer. More soybean offers in the CFR China today - bearish for US balance sheet

Far from any agreement. Rumors this vessel will be charged

One more major input retailer in Brazil is facing financial trouble — Belagricola. The company announced a 60-day suspension on fixings. AgroGalaxy, Lavoro Agro, and Bela are the main sources of barter liquidity in Brazil.

If there were no trade war or tariffs on U.S. beans, would the U.S. be cheaper than Brazil? Comparing this season with 2023 could give us an idea of how large U.S. sales for the OND window could be. With a full crop, Brazil would still be cheap enough to compete with US + quality

Rumour China is going to auction 3.5 Mi t of beans... DCE -1.6%. Here we go again. Earlier this year same game - rumors of 3.5 Mi t. Why auction beans if margins are bad and Spring Festival is earlier?

This is the Left party’s outcome — doesn’t matter where you go: South, North, East, or West. Brazil’s state-owned companies just posted the largest deficit in history. Back in 2020, under Bolsonaro, they had recorded the biggest surplus ever. Polls show Lula defeating all

Weekend Footnotes by Angie Setzer — out now Bean basis firming fast — bids up 30¢ in spots. Corn yields all over the place — disease hitting IA & NE. Wheat trade twist — France wins Egypt business while Russia talks up big crops. Cash is still the only thing talking sense. Read

Arg corn Farner selling has been very slow, helping Brz export program. Brz main destinations this season, Iran, Egypt, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia and Argelia. MENA represents 53% of total this year.

SBM and SBO are firmer on Fob 1. Despite bigger crops and larger crush, the Arg and Brz SBM export programs are only 1.1 Mi t bigger 2. SBO export program is stable. SBO is cheaper than CPO and SFO. Seasonally, CPO will get into lower yields. Crush in Arg will decrease, and Brz

Brz beans is getting cheaper CFR China (spot). The difference of Flat Price CFR China Brz-USG dropped from $30/t to $20/t (without quality adjustment and no tariffs). If we have a deal, it is very likely this gap will narrow #soybean #corn

Everyone keeps saying China is avoiding U.S. beans. The truth is: China doesn’t need all that beans. Crush margins are negative — even at what should be the best time of the year. The soybean pipeline to China remains well supplied, and soybean meal in Dalian keeps sliding

If you like a rumor, you might like this one. Rumors China booked US beans. Most of brokers in China say it's BS. Freight guys didn't see anything different.

Very funny story. US farmers are holding beans. Flat price in the US is moving up. Brz flat price is moving, OC and NC. Shouldn't it be the opposite?

Brz tdd CFR China OC only 18 c/b above USG replacement CFR China. The difference was 80 c/b a month ago.

Weekend Footnotes by Angie Setzer — out now Scenarios for US beans balance sheet brzreport.com/news/969e35a5-…

"Substantial purchases"... Li Chenggang, Vice Minister of Commerce of China, didn't mention anything similar, only some progress. Keep pressing F5 in the Chinese customs website.

If Substantial means State companies buying... could be 10-15 Mi t. Depending on the scale and rhythm, Brz will get cheaper very fast, including DJ window. The difference Brz-US has already dropped in the last two weeks. But depending on where the market sees yields coming, $12/b

USG and PNW based on replacement calculation CFR China. Brz and Arg are real offers (Friday). Adjusting quality, USG and Brz are almost equivalent. Good opportunity for state companies PNW comparing to Arg. #soybean #China