⭐️NEW paper “Clinical prediction models and the multiverse of madness” For any model created, a multiverse of other potential models exists & an individual’s prediction may vary greatly across this multiverse Avengers endgame: examine this instability🙏 bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…

Cogent argument in favour of the research q and not the hypothesis to be tested when writing grant apps: jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…

Online symposium on capacity building for research into multiple long-term conditions - save the date: Apr 18. Run by the @AdmissionCollab project team research.ncl.ac.uk/admissioncolla… #ltc #multimorbidity

A&E waiting times have worsened significantly in recent years. 📉 At the end of 2023, only 55% of patients attending major A&E departments were admitted, transferred, or discharged within four hours. nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/a-e-w…

Very important point and why I really worry about the 'work at the top of your licence' goal. I certainly don't this all the time and I don't know anyone who does.

ONS have improved their excess mortality calculation to deal with ageing and COVID - and it makes a huge difference to 2023 figures. Of course, each country does things differently bmj.com/content/384/bm…

It was great to run my Statistical Thinking workshop for a team at DEFRA last week for Understanding ModernGov - an engaged group, with lots of discussion around how not to RAG-rate KPIs. Done so badly so often! #Statistics #Training #PublicSector #performance

Thought for the day: if you think education is expensive, try ignorance - Derek Bok, lawyer and educator (courtesy of A Word A Day)

Latest in BMJQS's Grand Rounds series, this is on mixed methods research and how to best integrate its quant and qual parts qualitysafety.bmj.com/content/early/… BMJ Quality & Safety

"Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later." Fred Brooks, computer scientist (19 Apr 1931-2022), quote courtesy of wordsmith.org

Lovely patient experience today getting routine bloods done at Hammersmith Hospital Imperial NHS 💙 before next week's appt - there were no tests showing on the system (again), but the friendly phlebotomist did what I asked 😎

Congratulations Azeem!!! Flying the flag for primary care and public health science TeamGP Department of Primary Care & Public Health Imperial School of Public Health National Institute for Health and Care Research NIHR ARC Northwest London NIHR Applied Research Collaborations (ARCs) NIHR Imperial BRC Imperial Medicine SAPC Imperial NHS 💙 General Practice

It's puzzling that people blame "the NHS" for the state it's in. It's not a religion, simply a mechanism for paying for universal care (tax funded, free at the point of need, largely publicly provided). The main reasons it can't cope with demand, in no particular order are... 1.

Brilliant starting disclaimer from John Ioannidis #WCRI2024 keynote that as someone who works on bias, he may have a lot of biases. Channeling his “why most published research is false” paper, he says his work should be scrutinized the same way

Of course, league tables are statistically flawed, but let's make an exception in this case... Imperial ranks second in the world in major university ranking imperial.ac.uk/news/253793/im…

"History is a vast early warning system." - Norman Cousins, editor and author (24 Jun 1915-1990). Courtesy of A Word A Day

I love this at this year's annual #HSRUK24 conference in Oxford - attending solo can be daunting #ECR #HSRUK2024 #hsruk

Good to see this new funding for finding ways to treat #diabetes distress nihr.ac.uk/news/nihr-and-… Diabetes UK National Institute for Health and Care Research

The Health Foundation have published their annual report. See what they did in 2023 on analysis to reduce inequalities, improve services and evaluate policy: health.org.uk/publications/2…

Now available on bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3c… - in which I rant on about the pointless obsession with the possible overall risks of low levels of alcohol (eg UK guidelines and below). If they are there at all (for which there is no good evidence), we know they are very small.