My base scenario is that Trump administration might weaponize the Eurodollar system (no liquidity through swap lines for European banks) to some extent to pressure the EU on consessions for tariffs and its stance on the DragonBear.

What no one seems to be saying: Unless the US blinks first- liquidity will tighten for the other central banks, as in 2008 and 2020, to the point where dollars are the only accepted currency. Then Trump wins, and can dictate whatever conditions he wants.

Given the current panic liquidation of US treasuries, seems like a good time to post John Smith's words, from when this happened last time in march 2020...

The bond market just broke the White House. A 5% yield turned America’s creditors into its handlers—and Trump’s tariff retreat wasn’t strategy, it was surrender. Here’s what really happened: x.com/Nihonpolitics/…

Been listening to Tweetford J. Chungus recently. For anyone not on it yet - one of the best, most informative socialist politics podcasts out there.

Good time to plug Robert Bryer's 'accounting for crisis' book. Today's valuation of companies (the income statement based on vibes-based 'earnings', multiplied by an arbitrary constant) was invented by a guy called Fisher as a critique of Marx - led directly to the crash of '29