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From a poll Abacus Data did in July 2024

Today's #cdnpoli news re: NDP and Confidence and Supply agreement - also a good time to remind ourselves of what the opinion/political landscape looks like.

Key #cdnpoli insights: ✅The NDP has a slightly larger accessible voter pool than the Liberals (42% vs. 40%) ✅But the Conservative accessible voter pool is substantially larger and more rigid (52%) --- 🔵The CPC can expect to get at minimum 33% of the electorate to vote for

Reminder for #cdnpoli folks: There's a chance many Canadians will see news today about the #ndp/#liberal #casa deal ending and ask themselves... "what?"

In July 2024, Canadians were split on whether the Confidence and Supply Agreement was good or bad for Canadians. Among those very familiar with it, views were decidedly more negative.

I’ll be on CBC News network tonight at 7:30pm ET to talk about the end of the Liberal/NDP agreement. Tune in!

Fun! 🇨🇦 🇬🇧

55% of Canadians think it's time for a change in government and believe there is a good alternative to Trudeau and the Liberals. 6 in 10 of them are voting Conservative vs. 21% for the NDP. Another 31% say they want change, but don't feel there's a good alternative. Right

The political “conscious uncoupling” of Canada’s progressive alliance and what it means for the next election. Is one coming soon or is this Singh and fury signifying nothing…for now? My latest column for GZERO Media gzeromedia.com/gzero-north/co…

Lots of news today but just want to congratulate Stephanie Levitz on this new chapter in her career. Steph is a stellar reporter. One of the very best. Our big loss is the Globe's gain. I can't wait to see what you do there my friend, but I will miss you very much. xo

Some commentary with Abacus Data polling for context

Singh says election ‘now more likely’ with supply-and-confidence deal ended ipolitics.ca/news/singh-say… via @ipoliticsca

Justin Trudeau retreats from Canada’s liberal immigration regime ft.com/content/df0b2f… via @ft

Conscious Uncouplings: Why Political Alliances Don’t Last gzeromedia.com/gzero-north/co…

Via polling by David Coletto: "Only about half of Canadians were familiar with the Liberal-NDP governing agreement and 1 in 4 didn’t even know it existed. Another reminder that what happens in Ottawa, can often stay in Ottawa."

I suspect we are going to see #cdnpoli public opinion move from anxiety over the cost of living to anxiety over job security (especially folks under 45) over the next few months. Already seeing it in the Abacus Data tracking.

Getting asked this a lot lately: How firm is the Conservative voter coalition? The next Abacus Data #cdnpoli poll is going to explore this.