The VIX closed yesterday at 16.8, well below its long run average (19.5) and the modal observation for the year (19.2). This suggests correlations will decline over the next 30 days and stocks will grind their way higher.

Common wisdom has it that retail investors are “all in” on US equities, but recent mutual fund/ETF flow data says they remain wary.

The percent of “Buy” recommendations for S&P 500 companies has increased dramatically this year, a possibly worrisome sign about future index returns.

The Street’s most/least favored stocks have, on average, both outperformed this year.

Fed Funds Futures now put the highest odds (47 pct) on 3 rate cuts this year. A week ago, 2 rate cuts was the modal expectation (42 pct).

Non-US stocks are up +16.8% YTD, beating the S&P 500’s +5.4%, which seems like a big gap, but really they are just clawing back last year’s dramatic underperformance (+2.2 vs +23.3%). $ACWX $SPY

History says to look for the Nasdaq Comp doubling in a year before worrying those gains will lead to a crash. The Comp is up just 13 pct y/y.

US equities trade for a 66% forward PE valuation premium to rest of world (ROW) stocks. That may sound extreme, but America’s top 5 companies by market cap have ROEs that are more than double the 5 largest ROW public businesses. $ACWX $SPY

DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: "Whether the Nasdaq-100’s recent performance looks very overextended or boringly normal depends on the time frame one considers." $QQQ Christine Idzelis MarketWatch marketwatch.com/story/why-the-…