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The IPF diagram builds on this core paper with my co-authors Suman Basu, Emine Boz, Francisco Roch & D. Filiz Unsal, which derives optimal policy with financial frictions. The (simplified) equations underlying the diagram follow from this paper. imf.org/en/Publication…

Chief economist at Soc Gen thinks bond yield increases in Eurozone ex Germany are unwarranted by fundamentals, and calls for ECB intervention. Market dysfunction..Remarkable that this is now standard practice (especially considering the net exposure of an institution like Soc Gen

New GCAP paper “Putting Economics Back Into Geoeconomics” in Financial Times article by Gillian Tett this morning. By Christopher Clayton Matteo Maggiori Jesse Schreger Article: shorturl.at/F85P3 Paper: shorturl.at/rAfvV GCAP research: globalcapitalallocation.com/research

In case you missed this at the time: an excellent read on what might explain recent events in the treasury market. Highly recommend!

New paper: with LLMs and firm-level text, we track in real time how American and global companies are reacting to tariffs, export controls, and financial sanctions. 🇺🇸🌏 In Q1 2025, even before "Liberation Day", we see a sharp surge in reported economic pressure. 🧵(1/x)