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Something to watch: foreign gov pushback if US stablecoins end up dollarizing their countries. They fear would make it far harder for them to retain stable currencies themselves (ease of capital flight) and lose visibility into tx that could be money laundering or corruption

Analysis of Polymarket data suggests that a bet on "Powell out" increases the likelihood of a bet on an interest cut at the next FOMC meeting ("the revenge of time inconsistency"). But it also leads to higher expected 10-year Treasury yields and greater recession risk.

Official Chinese surveys indicate that sentiment regarding income and employment is quite negative. Job losses are pronounced in construction, somewhat noticeable in services, and minimal in manufacturing. China's economic problems are primarily domestic, not about trade.

Chinese smart driving systems from Huawei, BYD, Xiaomi, Li Auto, etc. all performed poorly compared to Tesla on a Chinese TV program testing cars in realistic scenarios on real roads and highways. This was striking for a number of reasons: 1. Chinese ADAS is behind. Tesla was

Just a flood of competitive new Chinese models, despite more limited access to computing than the US. DeepSeek is barely the tip of the iceberg

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So, China is still hooked on US AI chips. Sounds good to me! 300,000 H20s, even if all put in the same data center, would have orders of magnitude less training capability while using way more (expensive) power than US data centers loaded with H100s and now Blackwells.

Too many ppl are trying subpar free version of AI these days and setting it aside, meanwhile advanced models like o3 find me fully accurate obscure photos of old Medici galleries and archived descriptions of 18th century frames in minutes that have taken expert friends weeks

Cost for AI IS coming down, by >10x every year, but companies are paying to stay on the frontier of quality. 6/7

Former BLS Commissioner. Was appointed by President Trump. And long-standing Heritage Foundation before that. I have yet to see a single economist (not working for the Trump administration) defend this senseless and egregious act.

.Avinash (Avi) Collis and I have been working on our new measure of the economy, GDP-B, since we were both at MIT. Today, we have an article in the The Wall Street Journal about how it can be used to assess the consumer surplus of AI. In the fall, the AEJ Macro will publish our article on how GDP-B

The strategic environment for export controls has changed enormously since “liberation day.” Any new U.S. controls will likely be met with Chinese controls that make our actions far more costly to US and allies

Is there any public source on this that documents US startups building on Chinese open source AI models?

Ouch. The United States needs to prepare now for a China that’s learned from all of its export control, re-export control, and extra territorial restrictions and takes its relative military advantage just as seriously as the US does…

June US trade data are out! I estimated Chinese export transshipment to the US at the product level. Treat these estimates as maximums and not confirmations. SE Asia is the top candidate for transshipment. But most of China's diverted trade appears to be finding new markets.

Project Warpspeed was probably the most consequential and unqualified success of Trump's first term, and mRNA vaccines one of the most exciting medical advances of the 21st century. But this time, Trump 2.0's anti-vax HHS Secretary (Kennedy) is cancelling all federal funding for

Big, positive deal, OpenAI first open weight model in the post ChatGPT era, but two Chinese models still outperform it on benchmarks. China will continue to be a formidable competitor in this space h/t Ray Wang

I read a bunch of WeChat articles on the h20 repeating the sourceless (almost certainly wrong) assertion that a U.S. chip company would put trackers on even though the bill requiring them has not been passed. Beijing clearly want its labs focused on helping homegrown chipmakers