There is no one deterrence theory.

Somebody didn’t do the readings

Can U.S. military aid to Ukraine turn the tide? Tomorrow, April 24 at 1 PM ET, Defense Priorities will host a live discussion on this crucial topic featuring experts DEFP Senior Fellow Daniel Davis Deep Dive, Jennifer Kavanagh of Carnegie Endowment, Stimson Center's Kelly Grieco, and moderated by

Imagine if the Red Army thought this about NATO during the Cold War. The fast track to nuclear war.

Asked if he would support a bipartisan effort to sanction the ICC, Blinken tells Sen. Graham, "I welcome working with you on that."

The liberal order?

Kennan’s assessment of US leaders during Vietnam War rings true today: they were “like men in a dream,” incapable of “any realistic assessment of their own acts.” (From B. Tuchman, THE MARCH OF FOLLY)

Plenty of cheering from the sidelines for the US to bring about World War III. Russia seeing Ukraine strike the early-warning radars it would need to see a nuclear strike coming is unhelpful. The NATO Sec-Gen is cheering it on. Jake Sullivan needs to give him a call.

„This is only a scenario. None of it is inevitable, of course. But this is the path that we are currently on and the likelihood of it coming to pass grows by the day as one side or the other becomes more desperate.“ warontherocks.com/2022/10/the-en…

The risk in salami slicing is that, if you push it too far, you may lose a finger.

If US interests did not justify going to war in Feb 2022, they don't justify it today. Every escalatory step carries *some* risk of violating that principle. Asserting that "Putin fears us + won't escalate" is simplistic + ignores the catalytic dynamic of action-reaction cycles

THREAD How much does China spend on defense? A hardy perennial question! US officials and analysts suggest it now exceeds $700B—rapidly approaching the level of the US defense budget. 1/

"Ukraine needs 4.27MM artillery shells a year to 'perform effectively' on the battlefield...the U.S. is able to produce just 432,000 shells annually." It's grim accounting—especially re: manpower— but Mike DiMino ran the numbers and finds no silver bullets defensepriorities.org/explainers/no-…

Proud of this symposium we put up on Ukrainian incursion into Kursk. 10 all-stars weigh in on whether this is a mistake or a miracle: responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-kursk-… w/ John Mearsheimer Stephen Walt Jasen Castillo Lyle Goldstein Mark Episkopos, PhD Ivan Eland Monica Toft MORE

Domino Theory Redux

RED-HERRING. NOBODY IS ADVOCATING FOR ISOLATIONISM.

Hard questions about Taiwan need to be asked of Washington's myriad Taiwan advocates, writes Lyle Goldstein. For instance, how can U.S. forces prevail in a hypothetical war against China through a logistics train over 10,000 miles across the Pacific? washingtontimes.com/news/2024/aug/…

Trump being a serious buzzkill as he reportedly taps uber hawks and longtime neocons like Marco Rubio for his foreign policy/nat sec shop. New from me: responsiblestatecraft.org/rubio-trump/

Our new article in International Security on grand strategy unpacks Team Restraint. Take a gander.

Moving forward, Iran’s leaders “will trust diplomacy even less than before,” writes Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar. “Instead, they will lay the groundwork for a long war of attrition with Israel—and a potential nuclear breakout.” foreignaffairs.com/israel/islamic…