Welcome to the mess! Seems the cap failed & all storms went up at the same time. So instead of a few supercells going up becoming powerful & tornadic, we traded for a huge mess of embedded high precipitation supercells. We’ve been lucky so far, we’ll see if that luck holds.

Last post before we take off. A great example of what happens when you actually have a trigger. Storms are exploding across Western KAKEland. Two Tornado Watches in place, we’ll see how it goes. All hazards including strong tornadoes are possible. Be Weather Aware! KAKE News

Storm SW of Bird City produced an anticyclonic rope tornado a bit ago. Tornado Warning UNTIL 5:30PM MDT. Storm is moving NE at 25mph. Environment is favorable for supercells & tornadoes some possibly strong. Go figure, tornadoes happen as I leave KS. Boarding my flight soon…

Just had a brief #tornado southwest of Bird City, KS! Danger Noodle! @nwsgoodland St Francis, KS Road 23 a few miles east of Hwy 27! NWS Goodland

Warm front is advancing North across Western KS. NWS Dodge City just launched a weather balloon, seems the cap is stronger than forecast. Despite a strong cap, supercells & tornadoes are still possible, especially across NW KAKEland. All depends if the cap holds or breaks.

Spotlight on KS and OK, which are struggling to break out of #drought .

At least 25% of KS/OK had been in drought between Nov 2021 and Jan 2024 before conditions started improving. But recent precip has been sparse and drought is back over 50%.

drought.gov/historical-inf… NOAA

Despite morning storms & cloud cover we are already seeing signs of clearing. Energy is growing out West, the cap is also present. However most numerical models support storms breaking the cap in Western/NW KAKEland. All hazards including tornadoes are in play. Be Weather Aware!

Thursday Timeline
AM-Early Afternoon: Showers/storms across Central KS
Late Afternoon-Evening: Conditional Severe Weather Threat
Evening/night: Tornado Threat, especially Western/NW KS.

If storms break the cap, supercells & tornadoes are possible. Be Weather Aware!

We talk a lot about the capping inversion but what is it? It's an area of drier or warmer air sourced from CO/NM. This cap acts as a lid & either prevents storms from forming or hinders them. Sometimes IF a trigger is present, storms can break the cap & become quite powerful!

Just got done with a weather talk. Another day closer to the event & not much has changed. Seems numerical models are struggling to convect/pop storms due to a strong cap/lid. A lot of this event looks similar to last Monday, high ceiling conditional setup riding on a trigger.

Thursday looks like another high ceiling conditional severe weather setup across KAKEland. There is potential for high-end severe weather IF storms break the cap/lid. Still several days out, the Low is offshore of CA. The forecast will evolve & change as we near the event.

Despite several rain chances scattered throughout the week, nothing really looks all that promising. Hints of a more active storm pattern coming soon but even then most of the severe weather setups look conditional at best. Time well tell, but as always it's a waiting game!

Tracking some showers & isolated thunderstorms in Northern KAKEland near the cold front. I figured we'd see something, better storm chances near the KS/NE line late tonight. Otherwise partly cloudy skies with decreasing wind. KAKE News #kakewx #kswx

Brooklinn & I are holding down the fort today! Talking about periodic rain chances & conditional severe weather setups. Tune into KAKE News for the latest! Brooklinn Rae KAKE #kakewx

Noticing a solid thermal ridge ahead of our next cold front across SW KAKEland. Mainly 80s across Western KS but as suspected seeing a few lower 90s near the KS/CO line. Otherwise, it's windy across Central KS, it's been a borderline Fire Danger Day so far. Be fire-aware.

It’s Spring time which means my nemesis reappears…Brown Recluse come out of hiding. This is the 4th one to meet his end by my hand this year. KAKE News

The Kansas Wind is back for Monday! SSW winds could gust 40-50mph, especially across West Central KAKEland. Despite being warm & windy, looks like a borderline Fire Danger Day. Regardless be fire aware. We also MAY track a few showers or storms by late Monday. KAKE News #kakewx

It was a beautiful day across KAKEland! Warmer weather is on the way, especially by late week! KAKE News #kakewx #kswx