CDM Capital (@cdmcapital) 's Twitter Profile
CDM Capital

@cdmcapital

ATX/NYC-- Institutional Allocator, former PM and buy-side analyst. Top 50 ranked (60% CAGR) analyst on SumZero. DMs open

ID: 207630487

calendar_today25-10-2010 18:20:41

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$RIVN secondary coming in a few days or weeks. They are hemorrhaging cash badly, even if they had a gross profit on the Q...🤣😂

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Polar Capital's flagship uses the Dow Jones Global Technology Index as a bench for a reason. They are trailing the Nasdaq 100 by ~ -450 bps annually. "Fund beating 99% of peers is just a tad misleading." 🤔😬 It's a good marketing story for retail...

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$CDW ~2nd Percentile in terms of valuation. Roughly 98% of the last decade, CDW has been more expensive than it is today. Historically trades ~22x, forward P/E 10.7x, pretty defensive in an expensive stock market.

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Probably one of the best short thesis I've heard on $PLTR lately. Dems will be coming after Palantir if they get control of the house, all the easy money contracts w/ the government will evaporate. Asymmetric bet, $PLTR down big if dems win house, up a small amount if not.

Probably one of the best short thesis I've heard on $PLTR lately. Dems will be coming after Palantir if they get control of the house, all the easy money contracts w/ the government will evaporate.

Asymmetric bet, $PLTR down big if dems win house, up a small amount if not.
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I actually think there is bifurcated career risks being contrarian long SaaS & consensus long AI/semi/Capex plays. The AI spending narrative is already getting stale after $AMZN & $MSFT sold off on big Capex numbers. If they announce slowing spend, the sell-off will be extreme.

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Inflation running hotter than consensus, not better place to be than $MA & $V. Both off ~ -15% off the highs, growing forward EPS & topline DDs. No brainer!

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Can't think of a worse environment for the future demand for cruise liners. War in the middle east, oil prices going parabolic, consumer confidence coming down, fears of retaliatory terrorist attacks domestically. $RCL $CCL $NCLH

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Some of these SMID caps are starting to get super interesting if you have a 1-2 year outlook, many at trough earnings & well below 10-year avg. multiples. $CDW $POOL $FBIN $TECH $FOUR All have some idiosyncratic stories, but a ton of negativity priced in here at these levels.

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$CRM is sort of interesting here in front of the $25B accelerated share repurchase starting on Monday (03/16). It is syndicated out & will take place over months, but probably provides at least a short-term floor for the stock.

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$MA & $V are a natural inflation hedge, they get a percentage fee on Gross Dollar Volume (GDV). I.e. if Gas prices go from $2.50 ->$5.00, they essentially 2X their fee income. Interesting the market has sold these duopolies down so much of late given the tailwind from inflation.

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Interesting conversation recently on $TECH w/ a few Healthcare/Biotech PMs, many thinking Biotechne gets acquired in < 12 months at a 50-70% premium. Exposed to all the growth markets in pharma, 2H should continue to pickup.