Pretty incredible twist to end the year $GM up 55% with earnings and sales declining this year and $AMZN is flat with 30% growth in earnings and accelerating top line sales. The EV/EBITDA of these two businesses is not that far apart is the kicker, and GM actually outperformed by

Considerable bounce for the restaurant group in recent weeks from the "run it hot" rotation in anticipation of tax refunds (maybe more policy?)... Most not screaming cheap, and no idea where consumer stands later into 26' (wages declining, inflation likely falling too but where

Confused why $DDOG gets shredded for its exposure to AI flows and companies (down over 30% from accelerating growth ex AI) and $MDB which is more expensive and growing slower is still near its high and the drivers of these two businesses are very similar. Neither were or are

$RDNT after Hunterbrook report last week. Dug in and felt it was worth highlighting the cash flow (or lack of) for this business and the sizable increase in shares outstanding (accelerating) to finance the business. No comments on their numerous JV structures, but interesting

$POOL starting to get pretty interesting at current levels. Price has crashed significantly from the overblown covid levels and demand has yet to recover from stalled housing market trends and affordability challenges. Current $ you get a strong competitively positioned

Interesting day to start the year....Software getting sold hard. Think this is the move you are suppose to buy (semi v. software trade looks incredibly stretched and could be blow off in relative terms) Some quality businesses getting cheap historically like $WDAY (nearing 15x

Seems very odd from an economic cycle perspective that the "hot" trade in ai now is to buy the capital equipment makers? They don't scale, have limited pricing power selling to limited number of buyers, are wildly cyclical, and now trade at a vast premium to even the chip

Whats the argument in favor of $LRCX at current levels? Off analyst consensus it trades at 2x the p/e as $NVDA (40x v. 22x) for 27' numbers at roughly 1/4 the growth rate (12.5% v 50%) Im sure bulls will highlight packaging as moors law dead, etc. But even if you 2x the numbers

$MU $SDSK $GM $AAPL $WHR The consumer is going to be very upset when cars and computers and smart phones are supply chain constraint and prices go up to account for the memory shortages caused by AI demand that they are not asking for (could be a major factor in the mid terms).

$MGNI anyone have a timeline for when the court in Virginia is expected to rule on the remedies for the google anti trust case on SSPs? Some call activity on the 19s today for next week expiration (seemed odd unless..)

$CSGP still has one of the best owner operators and an attractive business set, but have to be honest that the update today is discouraging. Company guiding to $1.25B in EBITDA in 28' now. When they were guiding to $2B on $5B in revenue in 27' 18 months ago. New goal seems very

Finally purchased $WDAY today. Some SaaS / software companies are quite vulnerable to obsolescence from ai. But I would put that on the point solutions vendors, and solutions that have clear rule defined architectures (like accounting). I feel strongly there is variant

$RHLD $CMPO I have to admit I misjudged the arb opportunity between the valuation differential between the two companies on the same earnings stream (RHLD receives 1/10 ttm ebitda as a management fee). I might be wrong but thinking more on the structure my new conclusion: RHLD

Cyclical bubble? All the talk on AI and the Mag 7. But I think people need to start to be honest its the other stocks in many cyclical categories trading at 30-40x that have rocketed in the past few months that look the most frothy in the market. Too many to pick from but take

Strikes me odd the rush to price software as displaced by ai w/ no discrimination. There are clear losers in software but it does seem like very few other sectors being put in the same penalty box? Lazy software/semi pair trade, but odd a more rigorous take isn't made in what

Things to consider $SDGR holds milestone and low single digit royalties on $GPCR. Also SDGR's stake in the company is up 3.2x from the last reported level on their balance sheet ($37m end Q3 to $120m currently). Might not seem like a lot but material for a company its size with a

Perplexed --- Nat gas spikes, yields back up, $AMZN warns prices going higher (all challenge affordibilty). Plus extreme cold and weather affecting and will persist across large portions of the country AND yet restaurant stocks still pumping today? This market is something else

Hard to spin this for $PAR even if it is relatively small. A slap to the face of shareholders with the blatant disregard for their equity (or something is ill inside the operations here). Time to start examining if Savneet is really the operator the bulls have been pushing for

Whats the bullish case for insurance brokers? seem like an area rip for disintermediation from ai to eliminate the middleman. Most of the public players are roll ups so they have considerable debt too. While traditionally I know some of these names have been compounders I could

Third point ever actually extract any operating efficiencies or simply lever up balance sheets to get short term financial engineering for them to exit and be damned what happens to the business in the long term? Does not appear most targets over the years emerged stronger after