Happy to join Kelly Evans and Steve Liesman yesterday to discuss the sticky service inflation and the impact on the #Fed and bond and equity markets

🔴 FED'S HARKER: THE BANKS TELLING THE FED THAT THERE'S ALMOST NO ACTIVITY FOR FIRST TIME HOME BUYERS GIVEN THE RATES.

Strong retail sales indicate real PCE surged > 4% in Q3, lifting real GDP growth > 5%. The strong Sep. advance suggests a firm hand off to Q4 but we look for real PCE and GDP to moderate to just above 2% in Q4. Look to Powell for guidance on whether the Fed raises rates again.

🚨 U.S. mortgage rates just set a new 23-year high. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 7.92%. Spread: 310 bps

At 5.20%, the yield on the US 2-year is at a level not seen since mid 2006. #economy #markets #econtwitter #bonds

New Financial Times piece on buoyant US consumers again defying odds of a more substantive retrenchment to fuel explosive growth over the summer. But such a blistering pace will be difficult to sustain going forward, warn economists ft.com/content/d3355e…

My note on why the demise of the dollar & de-dollarization are greatly exaggerated realeconomy.rsmus.com/dollar-ascenda…

Inflation remains elevated and sticky in Powell's favorite core services measure.

while the world’s attention is elsewhere, putin bombs 100 locations in ukraine 24 hours highest rate of shelling in 2023

Fed fund futures currently showing NO probability of any more rate hikes. First time that's happened in a long time. Market now trading with 65% probability of a cut in May.