Buying 2yrs here means going long with a 30% chance already priced in for 300bps of cuts or more over the next year. How much more likely could it be that we have a collapse that's worse than the GFC & Tech bust ahead? x.com/DerivativesDon…

While 100k / mo jobs feels low for those of us who have been doing this for awhile, it is important to put that level in perspective. Baseline prime age population growth is only running at 800k / yr and unauthorized immigration has slowed substantially in recent months.

The August "crisis" was not started by or driven by the yen carry trade. The yen moves were an effect not a cause. Here I walk through what drove the market volatility during that time: youtu.be/2Bl4LkF4PQc?si…