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Could we see an unemployment rate of 4.7% by year-end?

Once the labor market chooses a direction, it relentlessly moves forward, unless a huge shock comes along to push it in the other direction.

There's mounting evidence it's chosen a direction.

Stephen Miran Whose forecast is this? What’s the model?

Steve Hou (“CONSUME LESS!”) Read the thread :)

Stephen Miran Steve Hou (“CONSUME LESS!”) I find the LCMI pretty helpful from my perspective. Looks at many different data sources and includes leading indicators of labor (working hours, overtime, openings, etc) to get a comprehensive read on the market.

Beowullf's Treasury 🇨🇦 Steve Hou (“CONSUME LESS!”) Same. I’ve always found super useful. And I thought it was ridiculous when the Fed walked away from it.

Stephen Miran Beowullf's Treasury 🇨🇦 Steve Hou (“CONSUME LESS!”) That and walking away from Quantity Theory of Money.

deerich Stephen Miran Steve Hou (“CONSUME LESS!”) lol. Agree with you - just tracking money would have told you, you went way too far and will have an inflation problem.

Beowullf's Treasury 🇨🇦 deerich Stephen Miran I don’t think the problem is “the Fed walked away from ‘MV=PY’”.

Steve Hou (“CONSUME LESS!”) Beowullf's Treasury 🇨🇦 Stephen Miran Because they didn't print anywhere near the amount of money in 08? Also didn't go direct to consumer. That was the icing on the cake.

deerich Steve Hou (“CONSUME LESS!”) Stephen Miran The by pass of the banking system direct to consumer was the issue this time.